It was two games, but it changed everything. The Celtics came close to beating the Nuggets this season, yet Denver outlasted them both times.
Despite everything the Celtics accomplished this year, those two Nuggets wins made the difference. The majority of the players surveyed in The Athletic’s NBA player poll picked the Nuggets to win the championship.
This anonymous poll has asked players across the league since 2019 for their thoughts on questions everyone wants to know. It’s not just the MVP, but who is the coach you’d least like to play for. What’s the best and worst arena to play in? How would you grade the refs and Adam Silver?
Several results pertained to the Celtics (more on that later), but there was one of real consequence. In one question, “Which team, other than you own, will win the title this season,” 55.9 percent of the 127 votes cast anointed the Nuggets as champions. Only 33.9 percent of voters picked the Celtics. The Clippers, Thunder, Bucks and Wolves were the only teams to receive multiple votes, but it essentially came down to the defending champs and the 64-win Celtics.
There is varying rationale for why the Nuggets are the majority pick. The two obvious factors are they are the defending champions and they beat Boston both times in the regular season.
But this is a more layered discussion and the way the league is set up right now, we might get our answer in June. A big part of that is how well-positioned the Celtics are to make a long playoff run.
The East was a mess this year below them in the standings. Entering the Play-In Tournament, there was debate over whether the two best contenders to knocking Boston off its perch were the teams favored in the Play-In, Miami and Philadelphia. But with Joel Embiid not looking fully healthy, Tyrese Maxey dealing with illness and Jimmy Butler potentially missing the first-round series against Boston, nobody in that group is looking formidable yet.
The Bucks made a big statement in Game 1 against Indiana without Giannis Antetokounmpo, and the Knicks look well-organized running through Jalen Brunson, but there is nobody in the East that should be making Boston sweat at this point. While this survey was conducted before the playoffs, it was already apparent there was no clear-cut threat to Boston in the East, and that played into the thinking of some voters picking Denver.
“Whoever comes out of the East is going to lose to the Western Conference teams,” one player said in the survey. “I just think when you look at the landscape out West, the best teams — Denver is my pick.”
Their prior matchups this season were arguably two of the best games this year.
Why did Denver manage to outlast the Celtics in both meetings? Jayson Tatum explained the puzzle that is containing Nikola Jokić after Boston lost in Denver on March 8.
“He’s such a good passer, but sometimes you help off the dunker (spot) and Aaron Gordon’s a great crasher,” Tatum said. “There’s no wrong answer, but the right answer can be different each possession.”
Even on a night when Jaylen Brown scored 41 points, Boston struggled to take care of the ball and finish off stops on Jokić. The Nuggets big has consistently been able to back down Kristaps Porziņģis and score through him. When Brown would rotate off of Aaron Gordon on the baseline to help stop Jokić, Gordon would find a way to score either off the pass or on a putback slam.
Porziņģis is a factor in the debate about whether the Nuggets should be favored. This should be his first deep run into the postseason, where his health and stamina will be tested. If Boston can make it all the way to face Denver, will Porziņģis be able to handle defending Jokić at that point?
Can Jrue Holiday battle Jokić for position all night? Brown wanted to get that opportunity as well — would that work? Al Horford is a good fit to guard Jokić in crunch time, but that also takes one of Boston’s starters off the floor. There is no wrong answer to Jokić, but there is no right answer either.
When asked after the game if the Nuggets had their number, Porziņģis pushed back.
“I don’t like this, that they have our number. I don’t like that kind of phrase,” Porziņģis said. “They beat us a couple times. The margins of who wins and who loses is small. They beat us at home. Hats off to them. Then, they beat us in their own home. It’s very small. It could’ve went our way.”
He was right, the margins were slim. Boston would have seven games to try to take down Denver, and its shooting prowess could win out in the end. But while the Celtics are built to mold to just about any team and execute an effective gameplan, Jokić may be the one player in the game against whom they don’t match up well.
It was just apparent that Denver frustrated Boston. The Celtics have taken care of the ball, avoided defensive mistakes and just shown a steady hand all year, but their composure faltered a bit that evening. And the Nuggets showed that, while Boston had all the statistical markings of an all-time great team this year, the Celtics are still vulnerable like everyone else.
“I like that we have this loss in the regular season. It stings. It has to sting,” Porziņģis said. “And we have to learn, and we have to improve and also some mental things that we could take from this game. We had some emotional plays that we cannot allow to happen in the playoffs.”
Who knows if there will be a Nuggets-Celtics NBA Finals? But if it happens, it’s going to be a thriller.
(Paul Pierce earned a GOAT vote in The Athletic’s recent player poll. Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images)
Underrated D White, Pierce the GOAT?
While the Celtics didn’t get the players’ ultimate respect for their title hopes, the franchise did get a lot of love (and a bit of criticism) in the player poll.
In last year’s poll, Jrue Holiday was named the league’s best defender. While he was dethroned this year by Victor Wembanyama, he held on to second place with 12.9 percent of the 132 votes. Last year, Holiday had 28.7 percent of the votes with Lu Dort finishing second at 11.4 percent.
That’s hardly a surprise, as Wembanyama has turned the league upside down in his first season.
But what was notable was that Brown received a pair of votes, while Derrick White received one. Brown has campaigned to be All-Defense throughout the season and has taken a step forward as a defender. Considering many reporters discussing their All-Defense votes often put White on the team even ahead of Holiday, it was interesting to see how highly the players value Holiday for his physical on-ball impact and versatility to guard every position.
In the most overrated category, Jayson Tatum managed to snag a pair of votes while Brown received one. But White tied Oklahoma City’s Jalen Williams for most underrated played with 10.3 percent of the 126 votes, while Holiday finished third behind them. Perhaps the most surprising player valuation of the survey came in the GOAT category, where Paul Pierce somehow managed a vote.
The fans also earned some accolades, with the TD Garden trailing Madison Square Garden for the players’ favorite arena to play in. Boston also received several votes for least favorite arena, so that may be the biggest accomplishment for some Celtics fans.
(Top photo of Jayson Tatum: Maddie Schroeder/Getty Images)
