Russo and Smith: An early look at the Wild’s 2024-25 lineup

The Wild’s lineup during their season-ending, 4-3 loss to the Kraken on Thursday night will look a lot like the one we see on opening night in October.

That may not whet the appetite of fans after the Wild’s second missed postseason in 12 years, but there’s a chance for some twists.

More than you think.

Let’s start with the top six.

If you read the tea leaves, Marcus Johansson, who scored 11 goals and 30 points in a disappointing 78-game season, will not be handed the same spot next to Marco Rossi and Mats Zuccarello next season. That basically came by default due to a lack of depth and injuries.

Same with Freddy Gaudreau, who had five goals and 15 points in 67 games with a team-record minus-23 despite spending most of this season in a middle-six role.

The Wild have cap space to play with, roughly $7 million, even if the likes of rookie Liam Ohgren and Marat Khusnutdinov are on next season’s roster. Expect Minnesota to explore the free-agent market on the forward front and perhaps fill a hole on the wing on the second line. Veterans who could be out there include David Perron, Patrick Kane, Anthony Mantha, Jake DeBrusk and Jonathan Marchessault, although if the 33-year-old Marchessault leaves Vegas, it’ll be because he wants term and big bucks.

There could be more options, as well, if the Wild decide to listen on Filip Gustavsson, as they already have Marc-Andre Fleury in the fold for one more year and prospect Jesper Wallstedt, who might not have much more to gain by another year with AHL Iowa.

If Gustavsson was traded and Wallstedt made the team, the Wild’s cap space would go from $6.92 million to $9.749 million.

Salary cap hit: $80,575,254 (including $14,743,488 in dead money and assuming Ohgren and Khusnutdinov make the team)

Projected salary cap: $87.5 million

Salary cap space before re-signing Declan Chisholm, signing unrestricted free agents and possible internal additions: $6,924,746

Here’s our feel on what the lineup for next year will look like:

Forwards

The Wild were a one-line team this season, but it was a pretty darn good one.

Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek and Matt Boldy carried Minnesota for much of John Hynes’ tenure. Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello were not producing the way we have been accustomed to at even strength, so Hynes did something that Dean Evason always was hesitant to do when Kaprizov and Zuccarello played too east-west and not direct enough. He split them up.

There’s no doubt Hynes will at least start next season with 97-14-12 as Line 1.

“I think, statistically, if you look through the league in different categories, they were at the best if not one of the top two or three, as far as goals, expected goals, point production, all those types of things,” Hynes said. “There were times they dragged the team to a win. … It is nice to know organizationally that those three guys can be a dominant line. With support around them, I think the team can really go.”

The question is, how can they get that support?

Ohgren has been very impressive in his first few games with the Wild, with Hynes indicating the Swede has shown he can make an impact in the NHL. The size, the shot, the skating. It’s not a stretch to think Ohgren could slip into the top six for some reps, something that occurred Thursday on the left of Marco Rossi and Zuccarello.

“Liam has made a strong case for himself,” Hynes said. “His speed and pace is NHL. He’s got good strength to him in the competition battles of the game. He’s got a power-play element to him. And he seems like he’s getting more and more comfortable in a short period of time.”

The ideal scenario, though, will be for the Wild to bolster the group in free agency or via trade.

Rossi has had an extremely impressive rookie season, worthy of the local PHWA chapter’s Masterton Trophy nomination. He’s taken a huge jump from a year ago, with his summer dedication serving as an example to some notable veterans in this lineup of what should be expected this offseason. But it’s not extremely farfetched to think that the Wild would listen on Rossi if the right offer came their way. If they could get a top young player back that brought more size and speed, they could be persuaded to pull the trigger.

A potential third line of Marcus Foligno, Ryan Hartman and Johansson looks pretty good on paper, especially if Foligno is healthy following a second core muscle surgery in as many years. Khusnutdinov showed the kind of skating, compete and smarts that’d fit well in the bottom six. Gaudreau could slide down there, hoping for a bounce-back season.

The Wild will have a decision to make on pending restricted free agent Mason Shaw. As much as he’s been a feel-good story and great fit in the room, Minnesota could move on from him if he wants a one-way contract or the team believes he’d file for arbitration, where he could be awarded a one-way contract. This is where they could look to add some size and sandpaper in this role and for the struggling penalty kill.

Vinni Lettieri is a possibility to start in the minors. While Riley Heidt has a good chance to surprise and make the team out of camp — he could be given at least a nine-game tryout to start the season before a decision on going back to junior — the WHL star will not be just brought up to play a fourth-line role. When Heidt is up, it’ll be for a better opportunity like in the top six and on the power play.

In other words, while the Wild would play an Ohgren or Khusnutdinov in a fourth-line role if they have to. They wouldn’t keep Heidt and play him on the fourth line in lieu of getting huge minutes and responsibility in a final year of juniors.

Vying for spots: Khusnutdinov, Ohgren, Heidt ($950,000)*, Lettieri ($775,000), Shaw (RFA)**, Adam Beckman (RFA), Sammy Walker (RFA), Adam Raska (RFA), Nick Swaney (RFA), Vladislav Firstov ($925,000), Hunter Haight ($897,500), Luke Toporowski ($870,000), Michael Milne ($861,667), Pavel Novak ($846,667)

Pending restricted free agents: Shaw**, Beckman, Walker, Raska, Swaney

Pending unrestricted free agents: Jake Lucchini, Jujhar Khaira, Turner Elson, Steven Fogarty

* Heidt can only return to the WHL or play for the Wild.

**If the Wild think Shaw would be awarded a one-way contract in arbitration, there’s a chance they won’t tender him a qualifying offer and he’d become an unrestricted free agent.

Defensemen

The blue line is pretty much set.

Jared Spurgeon, assuming his hip and back surgeries went well, will be back in his regular top-four role, likely beside usual partner Jake Middleton. A reunion with Calder Trophy candidate Brock Faber and Jonas Brodin makes sense, especially since we all know Middleton has played tremendously well with Spurgeon in the past.

Chisholm, a pending restricted free agent who shouldn’t be expensive, and Zach Bogosian, are a pretty good third pair. Jon Merrill, whose play was OK down the stretch, will either be in this pairing or a seventh defenseman. If the Wild decide they’d like to sign a defenseman, especially because they’d love to further bulk up on the back end, they could bury most of Merrill’s $1.2 million cap hit in the minors — if they badly need the space or find an upgrade.

The Wild’s top defense prospects aren’t quite ready yet, though Daemon Hunt is the closest, an NHL-ready player who would be the first call-up.

Vying for spot: Hunt ($828,233), Carson Lambos ($863,333), Kyle Masters ($865,000), David Spacek ($862,500), Ryan O’Rourke ($855,833), Jack Peart ($925,000)

Pending restricted free agent: Chisholm, Simon Johansson

Pending unrestricted free agents: Alex Goligoski, Dakota Mermis, Will Butcher

Goaltending

Fleury is back for another year, with the Wild signing the future Hall of Famer to a one-year, $2.5 million deal on the eve of the season finale.

The question is, what does this mean for Gustavsson?

Wild president and GM Bill Guerin has said all the right things: how he believes Gustavsson can be a No. 1, how improved conditioning could jumpstart a bounce back, etc.

But when Guerin said, “I haven’t made decisions on anything moving forward” and “when you have an opportunity to keep a Marc-Andre Fleury in your organization and keep him playing, you do it, and we’ll figure the other stuff out,” it doesn’t take a genius to realize the only decision he could be talking about is whether to trade Gustavsson.

So it should come as no surprise if Gustavsson is shopped this summer. Minnesota has its prized prospect in Wallstedt, who, at the very least, is ready for more NHL games. While it’s fair to think that it’s too soon to give up on Gustavsson, who has two years left on his contract and had Vezina Trophy finalist vibes during the second half of 2022-23, the Wild’s plans for their goalie tandem will be the most fascinating decision of the summer. No matter what, they’ll need a significant bounce-back. Heading into Thursday’s finale, Wild goalies had allowed 20 goals more than expected (Gustavsson 7.5 over 45 games, Fleury 8.5 over 39 games and Wallstedt 2.8 over three starts, per Evolving-Hockey).

How much more seasoning in the minors does Wallstedt need? Or could the organization decide it’d be more beneficial for him to be mentored by Fleury in the final year of his 21-year NHL career?

If the Wild do go with a Fleury-Wallstedt tandem by trading Gustavsson, it’ll be incumbent for them to sign a quality No. 3 in Iowa who could provide a reliable call-up option in case Fleury, who had an .895 save percentage this season, or Wallstedt struggle.

Vying for spot: Wallstedt*

In the system: Samuel Hlavaj ($875,000)

Pending restricted free agent: Hunter Jones

Pending unrestricted free agent: Zane McIntyre

*Even though Wallstedt is included in the depth chart, his cap charge isn’t included in the tabulation we computed above.

(Top photo of Brock Faber, Marc-Andre Fleury, Jonas Brodin and Kirill Kaprizov: David Berding / Getty Images)