Can the Vegas Golden Knights repeat? Or are the Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs fated for the NHL’s first all-Canada Stanley Cup Final since 1989? Or will some under-the-radar team blow up this year’s playoffs, as the Florida Panthers did last year?
With the postseason opening on Saturday, The Athletic posed these questions and more to our NHL staff.
Here are our picks to win each first-round series, the Eastern and Western Conferences, the Conn Smythe Trophy and the Stanley Cup, as well as picks for the biggest potential disappointment and a playoff dark horse.
To analyze and critique the picks, we’ve brought in national writer Sean Gentille, analytics know-it-all Shayna Goldman and NHL betting expert Jesse Granger.
First-round series predictions
Atlantic Division: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers
| Percent of vote | Lightning | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
4 games | 0.0% | 0.0% |
5 games | 0.0% | 6.3% |
6 games | 0.0% | 46.9% |
7 games | 25.0% | 21.9% |
Total | 25.0% | 75.0% |
Gentille: This sounds about right. “They’re the Lightning” is understandably going to be enough for one in four people. I get it, too — but Tampa Bay’s depth issues on defense make it impossible for me to pick them.
Goldman: I like that the only shot for Tampa Bay seems like it’s in Game 7 — bringing the “they know what it takes” vibes.
Granger: I was one of the few to pick the Lightning. The Panthers are the better overall team, but Andrei Vasilevskiy has finally started looking like himself down the stretch. He’s 8-2 with a .950 save percentage and two shutouts against Florida in the playoffs. It won’t be easy, but Tampa Bay is capable of pulling off the upset.
Atlantic Division: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Boston Bruins
| Percent of vote | Maple Leafs | Bruins |
|---|---|---|
4 games | 3.1% | 0.0% |
5 games | 3.1% | 3.1% |
6 games | 12.5% | 21.9% |
7 games | 18.8% | 37.5% |
Total | 37.5% | 62.5% |
Gentille: If these were the exact rosters for the Coyotes and the Flames, or whatever, I guarantee you it’d be closer to a 50/50 split.
Granger: Totally agree, Sean. History has swayed the votes here despite these teams being closely matched (and the odds show that). Having said that, I went with Boston (because of the massive goaltending mismatch, not the history).
Metro Division: Washington Capitals vs. New York Rangers
| Percent of vote | Capitals | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
4 games | 0.0% | 21.9% |
5 games | 0.0% | 56.3% |
6 games | 3.1% | 15.6% |
7 games | 0.0% | 3.1% |
Total | 3.1% | 96.9% |
Gentille: One person on staff really, really likes Charlie Lindgren. Can’t blame them, but … nah.
Goldman: If the Capitals could have won the second wild-card spot a little sooner, maybe we would feel a little different.
Granger: This will be a short series.
Metro Division: New York Islanders vs. Carolina Hurricanes
| Percent of vote | Islanders | Hurricanes |
|---|---|---|
4 games | 0.0% | 9.4% |
5 games | 0.0% | 46.9% |
6 games | 0.0% | 25.0% |
7 games | 12.5% | 6.3% |
Total | 12.5% | 87.5% |
Gentille: Last season, Isles-over-Canes was a trendy first-round upset pick. I see we’re not running that one back.
Goldman: It’s going to be too funny if, the year the Canes finally do what we’ve all been yelling for the to do — add a bonafide goal scorer in Jake Guentzel — they get upset in Round 1.
Granger: Not only do the Hurricanes clearly have the better roster, but they also seem to excel most at the aspects the Islanders struggle with. This just feels like a great matchup for Carolina.
Central Division: Vegas Golden Knights vs. Dallas Stars
| Percent of vote | Golden Knights | Stars |
|---|---|---|
4 games | 0.0% | 3.1% |
5 games | 0.0% | 0.0% |
6 games | 6.3% | 31.3% |
7 games | 9.4% | 50.0% |
Total | 15.6% | 84.4% |
Gentille: The Stars were (and are) my pick to win the Cup, but I gotta say, I’m surprised to see how lopsided the vote is on this one. Vegas is good, and it’s about to get Mark Stone back. That alone should be worth more than 15 percent.
Goldman: Everyone is picking and hoping for the Stars to avoid the LTIR discourse if Vegas wins. One thing seems for sure, to me: This series will go the distance.
Granger: I think Dallas has the deeper roster, but the matchup of systems worries me for the Stars. Pete DeBoer’s possession-heavy offensive scheme that fires tons of shots from the outside has always had problems with good defensive teams that play a compact zone around the net. It was a big reason Vegas advanced in the conference finals last year, and could happen again.
Central Division: Colorado Avalanche vs. Winnipeg Jets
| Percent of vote | Avalanche | Jets |
|---|---|---|
4 games | 0.0% | 0.0% |
5 games | 9.4% | 6.3% |
6 games | 21.9% | 21.9% |
7 games | 28.1% | 12.5% |
Total | 59.4% | 40.6% |
Gentille: That’s a lot of folks signing off on Alexandar Georgiev.
Goldman: I can’t decide if too many of us are sleeping on Winnipeg or if we’re just that confident in Colorado’s star power taking over.
Granger: The lineups are closely matched, in my opinion, with a slight edge to Colorado, but the goaltending is so lopsided that it’s going to take one heck of a series by the Avs to win this.
Pacific Division: Nashville Predators vs. Vancouver Canucks
| Percent of vote | Predators | Canucks |
|---|---|---|
4 games | 0.0% | 3.1% |
5 games | 0.0% | 12.5% |
6 games | 15.6% | 18.8% |
7 games | 25.0% | 25.0% |
Total | 40.6% | 59.4% |
Gentille: For me, this might be the most interesting series of the first round, and it hinges on Juuse Saros.
Goldman: I’m with you on that, Sean. It really feels like this could go seven and be a toss-up.
Granger: The Canucks have been disrespected all season, and it feels like they are here as well. I think Vancouver cruises.
Pacific Division: Los Angeles Kings vs. Edmonton Oilers
| Percent of vote | Kings | Oilers |
|---|---|---|
4 games | 0.0% | 6.3% |
5 games | 0.0% | 37.5% |
6 games | 0.0% | 46.9% |
7 games | 0.0% | 9.4% |
Total | 0.0% | 100.0% |
Gentille: Kings going full Blutarsky, eh?
Goldman: I think a lot of us gave the Kings a better chance to win versus Edmonton the past few years. So this is going to be the year they actually do it, right?
Granger: All the Kings had to do was not score in the final two minutes of Thursday’s game against Chicago and they’d be flying to Dallas. Instead they’re playing an Oilers team that apparently no one gives them a shot against.
Dark horse to win the Cup
Note: Must have +2,000 or worse odds to win Cup, with odds per BetMGM.
Gentille: The Lightning should be exempt here, regardless of the rules and odds.
Granger: Agree.
Goldman: Nashville showing that disruptor potential. It totally clicks here.
Favorite that will be the biggest disappointment
Note: Must have +1,000 or better odds to win the Cup, with odds per BetMGM.
Gentille: And now the Georgiev skeptics have entered the chat. Welcome.
Goldman: I get why Colorado is so high here, but I’m surprised Dallas isn’t with a Round 1 matchup against Vegas.
Granger: There are so many evenly matched first-round series between contenders that it almost feels wrong to consider the losers “disappointments.”
Eastern Conference champion
Gentille: I’m not saying that I’d pick the Bruins — I think they lose to Toronto, actually — but it’s interesting to see them shut out entirely in this voting.
Goldman: Post-deadline, it does feel like Carolina became the team to beat. The Jake Guentzel Effect is real!
Granger: I am a little surprised the Rangers didn’t get more love here. They’re a very complete team with an elite goalie who’s hitting his stride at the right time.
Western Conference champion
| Team | Percent of vote |
|---|---|
65.6% | |
18.8% | |
6.3% | |
6.3% | |
3.1% |
Gentille: All that deadline action at the top of the West, and this is what it’s led to? Stars versus The Field? Sheesh.
Goldman: I picked Dallas, so I added to this lopsidedness. But the West is so stacked, I feel like this should be a lot closer.
Granger: The overall perception of the Oilers has been an absolute roller coaster this year, and it feels like by the end of Round 1, they may be getting a lot more votes than this. I tried to get ahead of it, but not many agreed.
Stanley Cup champion
Gentille: The Stars were my choice in the preseason, and I never wavered. Integrity matters.
Goldman: Legitimately shocked Florida slipped this low after getting so many votes to win the East. A lot of us having them losing in the Final again.
Granger: The Rangers are my pick, but I can’t remember a postseason when I felt more teams had a legitimate shot at winning it all.
Conn Smythe winner
Gentille: I love Sebastian Aho as much as anyone, but I’m a little surprised to see him at No. 1. It’s another testament to how good Dallas is. Five different players split the Stars’ votes.
Goldman: I think the coolest part of this list is how many names at the top of this list (besides Nathan MacKinnon) are not front-runners for the Hart Trophy. Someone else could get their MVP moment.
Granger: Not only is the field wide open, but we can’t even come to a consensus on the MVPs of each team. What a fun couple of months this is going to be.
(Top photo of Mark Stone lifting the Stanley Cup in 2023: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
