The Pittsburgh Penguins find themselves in an eerily similar spot to last summer.
They’ve got star power, but not enough to carry them to the postseason on that alone.
They’ve got little depth, limited salary cap maneuverability and the NHL’s oldest core.
President/general manager Kyle Dubas has his hands full. What will he do?
After talking with people in the organization and around the league over the past few months, here’s how I’m expecting the offseason to unfold for an organization that desperately wants to contend.
The ‘Untouchable’ Division
Sidney Crosby — Let’s not be silly.
Evgeni Malkin — The Penguins realize he isn’t the same guy he was five or 10 years ago, but they also believe he brings good value at $6.1 million annually. He owns a full no-movement clause and has no desire to play elsewhere. There is every reason to believe he will retire as a Penguin.
Kris Letang — Like Malkin, is Letang the same guy he was in 2016? Nah. How could he be? Look at what he’s been through. Letang’s mystery injury in the second half of this season will eventually become a storyline. A trade will not. He, too, has a no-movement clause. And it’s not like the Penguins were displeased with him for most of the season, anyway. I fully expect Crosby, Malkin and Letang to retire as Penguins.
Erik Karlsson — I don’t know how movable his contract is. I do know how badly the Penguins want the Karlsson experiment to work. He wasn’t a disaster in his first season in Pittsburgh by any stretch, but he didn’t dominate the way many expected. The Penguins are determined to make this work.
Bryan Rust — Rust has one year remaining on the “full no-movement” part of his contract, and the Penguins have told him they have no intentions of asking him to waive it. He’s now Crosby’s most trusted winger. He scored 28 goals despite missing 20 games. He should be wearing a letter on his chest. He’s not going anywhere.
Marcus Pettersson — The Penguins aren’t great defensively or stable by nature. Pettersson, then, is the anti-Penguin in that regard. He’s not going anywhere. They’d be in a world of hurt on the blue line without him. Pettersson’s play faded a bit down the stretch, but, on the whole, he enjoyed his best NHL season and is only 27.
The ‘Very, Very Likely to Stay’ Division
Michael Bunting — He doesn’t have the tenure to make the untouchable list just yet, but come on. He’s a perfect fit. It’s wildly unlikely he would go anywhere.
Lars Eller — What a good player. Could you trade him for something? Sure. But if the goal is to win next season, keeping him makes the most sense.
Noel Acciari — You know who loves this guy? Dubas and coach Mike Sullivan. His numbers weren’t impressive. Nor was the eye test. But I’d be quite surprised to see him go anywhere.
Jesse Puljujarvi — I can’t say he blew anyone away, but he wasn’t terrible and has a year left on his deal. I’d bet on him starting on the fourth line next season.
The ‘Young and Here to Stay’ Division
Drew O’Connor — No player in this tier is untouchable, but O’Connor is pretty close. He’s young. He’s good. He’s fast. He’s big. He works cheaply. It’s hard to imagine him going anywhere because he’s exactly what the Penguins need. He really came into his own.
Pierre-Olivier Joseph — Talk to anyone in the front office, and they’ll very quickly let you know they loved his game down the stretch. Does that mean he’s in Pittsburgh to stay? Does it mean he played well enough that the Penguins could trade him? Joseph plays well with Letang, which is no small thing. Letang is hard to play with. If Joseph and Letang are the answer on the second pairing — which is difficult to assess because Letang wasn’t himself at the end of the season — it would allow Karlsson and Pettersson to stay on the top pair together. All of a sudden, the Penguins’ top four would be set and, if you were Dubas, you could exclusively focus on your forwards this summer.
Jack St. Ivany — How impressive was he down the stretch? Wow. I think the Penguins have a good one in St. Ivany. I don’t know how high his ceiling is, but, at worst, he looks like a very solid third-pairing option. It doesn’t hurt that he’s right-handed and works cheaply.
Ryan Shea — Is he the next Chad Ruhwedel? He might be. Shea’s talent won’t blow you away, but there is a steadiness to his play.
John Ludvig — The Penguins really like him. His rookie season was bumpy at times, but the organization loves the physicality he brings to the table and believes he has a bright future.
The ‘Unknown’ Division
Matt Nieto — He has a year left on his deal, but will he be healthy enough to play?
The ‘So Long, Farewell’ Division
Jansen Harkins — He wasn’t as terrible as some think. But yeah … goals matter.
Emil Bemstrom — Did he do enough to come back next season? Is he really whom the Penguins need on their bottom six? I’d bet on him playing elsewhere next season.
The ‘For Sale’ Division
Reilly Smith — Following a terrific first month with the Penguins, Smith faded away. He never seemed to fit in. With only one year left on his contract, the former Stanley Cup winner will be on the trade market.
Rickard Rakell — Rakell looked more himself during the second half of the season. Did he look good enough to get the attention of another team? The Penguins would be OK with that. The contract former GM Ron Hextall gave Rakell looks terrible, and the Penguins would be better off dealing him, if possible. He’s a well-liked teammate, but no one, not even Rakell himself, could defend how he played most of this season.
The ‘FOR SALE’ Division
Ryan Graves — Would anyone take him? I wouldn’t imagine. The Penguins know they made a significant mistake with this contract and would love to unload it. The truth is, they’re almost certainly stuck with it.
The ‘One Depends On The Other’ Division
Alex Nedeljkovic — If the Penguins decide to keep goaltender Tristan Jarry through next season, it would seem unlikely that Nedeljkovic will return. He earned himself a raise with his performance during the 2023-24 season, and the Penguins might not be able to match. However, if Jarry is traded — more on that later — then keeping Nedeljkovic becomes a no-brainer.
The ‘Highly Interesting’ Division
Tristan Jarry — Dubas and Sullivan offered nothing but kind words about Jarry following the season. Of course they did. There’s no point in saying anything else.
We have questions that need answers: Do the Penguins truly believe in Jarry? Are they secretly interested in trading him? After all, they like Nedeljkovic, and Joel Blomqvist is just about ready. What’s Jarry’s trade value?
Dubas and Sullivan said all the right things, but it’s no secret that Jarry was in the doghouse down the stretch and that he tends to create some frustration. He’s also really, really talented and, at worst, a good regular-season goalie.
But do the Penguins think they’re ever going to win with him? I’m not so sure. He’s the most interesting figure of the Penguins’ summer, other than Dubas himself.
(Photo of Tristan Jarry: Pamela Smith / Getty Images)
