INDIANAPOLIS — Colts general manager Chris Ballard was thrilled with his selection. There was no hesitation when he turned in the card. No second-guessing. Indianapolis used its first pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on an edge rusher and potential game-changer, according to Ballard, whose journey to the NFL spoke volumes about his perseverance.
“What his backstory tells you is this kid’s got some survival skills, and when it gets hard in this league, he’s gonna be able to handle it,” Ballard said. “This is a hard league. It’s hard, and you’re gonna fail. Players are gonna fail. You’re gonna have some bad moments, and you gotta have something inside of you that allows you to push through it.”
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Laiatu Latu, who spent more than two years away from football due to a severe neck injury, certainly fits that mold. The Colts chose the pass-rush technician out of UCLA with the No. 15 pick in this year’s draft, making him the first defensive player selected.
But when Ballard made those comments about “survival” and determination, he wasn’t talking about Latu. He was talking about 2021 first-round pick Kwity Paye. Paye was born in a refugee camp in Guinea before his mother fled with her children to the United States following the First Liberian Civil War. Three years ago, Indianapolis drafted Paye with the No. 21 pick, and after he heard his name called, he famously told national TV cameras that his mom was “done working. She’s retired.” Ballard repeatedly called the Paye pick an “easy” decision. But as Paye gears up for his fourth NFL season, another big decision about his future awaits, and it may not be such an easy decision.
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The deadline to pick up Paye’s fifth-year option is Thursday. The addition of Latu, who has trained with Paye and looks up to him, adds an extra bit of cloudiness to the situation.
“We’ll work through that next week,” Ballard said the same night Latu became a Colt. “But, Kwity is a really good football player. He had 8.5 sacks last year, plays the crap out of the run. He’s a great teammate. I think you know our philosophy: We want to keep as many of our own guys as we can. We like Kwity a lot.”
But does Ballard like Paye enough to pay him $13.4 million fully guaranteed in 2025?
We’ll find out very soon, but as we wait, let’s take a look at the arguments for and against exercising Paye’s fifth-year option.
Getting after the QB in record-setting fashion.
🎥 More highlights at https://t.co/L0POMCeANr pic.twitter.com/MAkUjASeMT
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) January 19, 2024
Why the Colts should pay Paye
Paye was a vital part of the Colts’ defensive line last year that spearheaded the team’s Indianapolis-era record of 51 sacks. The 25-year-old registered his best campaign with career highs of 8.5 sacks and two forced fumbles, which may seem modest but also represent Paye’s steady improvement.
Paye has increased his sack output every year and remains stout against the run. Ballard said at the NFL owners’ meetings he thinks Paye still has another level he can unlock, and if Ballard truly believes that, then it would be wise — and maybe even easy — for Indianapolis to hand Paye $13.4 million in 2025. If the team doesn’t pick up the option, and he dominates in 2024, he’ll earn a much bigger payday as an unrestricted free agent next offseason and could price himself out of Indianapolis’ market.
It’s also worth noting that $13.4 million wouldn’t be a huge commitment to retain Paye for another year. As it stands now, that one-year salary would make him the 23rd-highest-paid edge rusher in the NFL in 2025 by average annual salary. Even if Paye didn’t live up to that type of money, Indianapolis would be able to part ways without altering the trajectory of its franchise, which is being built around quarterback Anthony Richardson. The 2023 No. 4 pick still has three years remaining on his rookie deal (plus his fifth-year option), so it would be safer to take a swing on Paye now while Richardson, in theory, remains underpaid.
Another factor to consider when weighing Paye’s fifth-year option is his draft mate, Dayo Odeyingbo. The 2021 second-round pick also had a career season in 2023. He tallied eight sacks and 17 QB hits and is entering the final year of his rookie deal. If he’s able to take another step forward this year, it may be very difficult to retain both players in free agency if Paye’s fifth-year option isn’t picked up.
After drafting Latu, Ballard called his defensive line “the best since we’ve been here.” If that’s the case, then the easiest path to keeping it together for the foreseeable future is to exercise Paye’s fifth-year option, so the team can then turn its attention to Odeyingbo and his expiring contract next offseason.
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Why the Colts shouldn’t pay Paye
Paye had a modest career at Michigan, at least in sacks, totaling only 11.5 in four seasons. When Ballard drafted Paye, it was more about what the edge rusher could become rather than what he already was. Ballard believed Paye’s physical traits could help him morph into a star in the NFL.
That hasn’t been the case.
From 2021 to 2023, Paye’s 18.5 sacks rank 46th in the NFL while his pressure rate, according to Pro Football Focus, is an alarmingly low 9.2 percent (in 2023, it was 7.1 percent, easily the lowest among players with at least eight sacks last season). Among players with at least 10 sacks from 2021 to 2023, his 9.2 percent pressure rate ranks 112th.
It would be unfair to say Ballard missed on Paye because he’s become a solid NFL starter. However, it also would be a lie to say he’s elite. If he were, Ballard wouldn’t have been compelled to pursue an upgrade on the edge not once but twice this offseason. Ballard confirmed the Colts tried to sign four-time Pro Bowler Danielle Hunter in free agency before he ended up in Houston on a two-year, $49 million deal.
After missing out on Hunter, Ballard drafted Latu, who is a much more proven pass rusher coming out of college than Paye was. Latu’s athleticism is on par with Paye’s (9.37 and 9.34 relative athletic scores, respectively), but Latu racked up 24 sacks over his final two years at UCLA, and his 13 sacks in 12 games last season were more than Paye had in 38 games at Michigan.
“I think he’s going to produce pretty quickly as a rusher,” Ballard said of Latu. “This guy is a pretty polished product in terms of rushing. Of course, you’re going to have to learn, especially against the tackles who are so good in our league and the protection schemes are so good. So, that will be an adjustment for him. But, (he’s a) smart kid — he’ll figure it out.”
If the Colts expect Latu, whom area scout Chad McGaha said was “born to rush the passer,” to immediately wreak havoc as a rookie, then not picking up Paye’s fifth-year option would make some sense. The team could always work out another deal with Paye next offseason or focus its attention on retaining only one of Paye or Odeyingbo. As much as Ballard talks about keeping his homegrown players, there is only so much money he can invest in the defensive line — especially after already handing out big extensions to DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart this offseason — so it may be counterproductive to try to reward Paye and Odeyingbo with second contracts if Latu quickly proves he’s more valuable at a much cheaper rate.
So far, a handful of defensive ends from the 2021 class have already had their fifth-year options exercised, including Dallas’ Micah Parsons (drafted No. 12 overall), Miami’s Jaelan Phillips (No. 18) and Buffalo’s Greg Rousseau (No. 30). Parsons, a two-time first-team All-Pro, is in a different stratosphere than the rest of his draft mates, so retaining him for another year before he breaks the bank was a no-brainer.
Paye finds himself in a similar tier as Phillips and Rousseau, though both have arguably been more disruptive.
• Phillips: 22 sacks, 52 QB hits and 26 knockdowns in 42 games.
• Rousseau: 17 sacks, 42 QB hits and 23 QB knockdowns in 46 games.
• Paye: 18.5 sacks, 29 QB hits and 12 QB knockdowns in 43 games.
That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement for Paye and why, after taking a good look at both sides of the decision, it seems more likely Indy will not pick up his fifth-year option.
(Photo: Perry Knotts / Getty Images)
