From Caleb Williams to Bo Nix: Grading the outlook for each first round QB

The historic odds of a Top-10 QB disappointing in the NFL? 41 percent. With five QBs picked top-10 and one No. 12, who could disappoint this year?

Below is a deep dive on the six 2024 first round QBs, rating their offensive line, weapons, offensive system, mechanics, reported work ethic (yes, that’s tricky, stick around) and short-term situation. I’ll grade each category from one (worst) to six (best), adding the scores to calculate their outlook grade. The higher the better:

1. Caleb Williams, Chicago (Grade: 86%)

• Pass protection: Last year, the Bears’ offensive line ranked 13th in PFF’s pass blocking during their best (and healthiest) five-game stretch. All five starters return. | Grade: 4/6.
• Skill players: Potential league-best WR trio of Keenan Allen, D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze, together with pass-catching RB D’Andre Swift and TE Cole Kmet make up an elite group. | Grade: 5/6.
• Offensive system: New OC Shane Waldron has a track record of getting the most out of his QBs, most recently with Geno Smith in Seattle. | Grade: 4/6.
• Mechanics: Ted Nguyen rated Williams’ mechanics by far the highest in this class. | Grade: 6/6.
• Work ethic chatter: “The strength coach at USC raves about his work ethic, says it’s off the charts,” said one scout in Dan Pompei’s enlightening story. “He’s always in the building,” said another. | Grade: 6/6.
• Short-term outlook: The undisputed Day 1 starter, Williams is in the best situation of any No. 1 pick in NFL history. Paired with a young, improving defense, a playoff appearance in year one is possible, even if he is a Bears’ QB. | Grade: 6/6.

2. Jayden Daniels, Washington (Grade: 55%)

• Pass protection: Former QB Sam Howell’s tendency to take sacks didn’t help this line, which PFF ranked 24th. Notable that Jacoby Brissett was not sacked once in two games. | Grade: 2/6.
• Skill players: Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Zach Ertz are decent weapons, as are RBs Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson. | Grade: 3/6.
• Offensive system: In OC Kliff Kingsbury’s last NFL stint (2022), his offense — led by Cardinals QB Kyler Murray — had an efficient ground game but was overly reliant on Murray’s ability to create. | Grade: 3/6.
• Mechanics: In 2023, Daniels improved his throwing efficiency and mechanics. He’ll need these strong mechanics to stick as he plays behind a weak O-line. | Grade: 4/6.
• Work ethic chatter: After struggling at Arizona State, he transferred and made a Joe Burrow-esque jump at LSU, routinely showing up to watch film at 5:30 a.m. “He just lives in the building,” said former HC Brian Kelly. | Grade: 6/6.
• Short-term outlook: A Day 1 starter, Daniels does not have the experience progressing through his reads that his typical comp, Lamar Jackson, had entering the NFL. The Commanders’ defensive struggles had Ted Nguyen writing that “Washington could be a disastrous landing spot for a young quarterback.” | Grade: 2/6.

3. Drake Maye, New England (Grade: 33%)

• Pass protection: One of the league’s worst offensive lines lost their starting LT and failed to secure a top OT in the draft. | Grade: 1/6.
• Skill players: Yikes. The Patriots failed to land a true separator at WR in the draft and have four players who would be strong WR3s, plus Rhamondre Stevenson and Hunter Henry. | Grade: 1/6.
• Offensive system: New OC Alex Van Pelt has 28 years of NFL experience, most recently as Cleveland’s OC from 2020-2023. Last year, Van Pelt (who didn’t call plays) designed the NFL’s 12th-highest scoring offense. Not the flashiest hire, but at least he’s not Matt Patricia? | Grade: 2/6.
• Mechanics: The debate over Maye’s mechanics in Nguyen’s article had him tied with J.J. McCarthy for sixth in the class (behind the other QBs listed here and Spencer Rattler). | Grade: 3/6.
• Work ethic chatter: “He is so passionate about football that he does everything right in his life to make sure that he is going to play the best he can play,” said Maye’s college coach. I found the least amount of work ethic chatter on Maye, which is probably meaningless but led to this grade. | Grade: 4/6.
• Short term outlook: The positives — HC Jerod Mayo’s culture, a run game and strong defense — are unlikely to outweigh Maye’s lack of protection and weapons. That, plus Maye’s struggles to quickly progress through reads, diagnose coverage and manage the pocket make him someone who should sit in year one. | Grade: 1/6.

4. Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta (Grade: 64%)

• Protection: This may be irrelevant, considering Penix might not play all season, but the Falcons return five starters from 2023’s second-best pass-blocking line (87.4 pass-blocking efficiency score, per PFF). | Grade: 6/6.
• Skill players: Bijan Robinson in the backfield, Kyle Pitts in the slot and Drake London out wide, all while Darnell Mooney stretches the field. It’s a strength in Atlanta. But again, timing makes this difficult. | Grade: 4/6.
• Offensive system: New OC Zac Robinson is a former NFL QB and a Sean McVay disciple. This is his first experience as a playcaller, but expect his offense to create space for playmakers. | Grade: 3/6.
• Mechanics: Lefties look awkward — and Penix has room for improvement — but he’s still an elite thrower. His tendency to lean back is one reason he grades here. | Grade: 4/6.
• Work ethic chatter: “He was always the first person to arrive at practice, always one of the last people to leave practice,” said Penix’s high school coach. Penix had to be a hard worker in college, overcoming four consecutive season-ending injuries. | Grade: 5/6.
• Short term outlook: The only obvious first-year backup, Penix has what most rookie QBs need: time. But it might be too much time. Kirk Cousins turns 36 soon and is coming off a significant Achilles injury, but Dan Marino played six more seasons after tearing his at 32. | Grade: 1/6.

5. J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota (Grade: 81%)

• Protection: Two elite tackles bookend a weaker interior unit. After Cousins went down, the Vikings gave up the sixth-most pressures and ranked 26th in pass-blocking efficiency, per PFF. | Grade: 3/6.
• Skill players: Justin Jefferson helps any QB. Add RB Aaron Jones, WR Jordan Addison and TE T.J. Hockenson, and you’ve got an impressive group that ranks just ahead of Chicago’s on this list due to system experience. | Grade: 6/6.
• Offensive system: There’s a reason McCarthy considered the Vikings a “dream scenario,” as he’ll work in HC Kevin O’Connell’s QB-friendly, play-action-heavy system that had Cousins leading the NFL in touchdown passes and completions through eight games last season. | Grade: 6/6.
• Mechanics: Scoring similarly to Maye in Nguyen’s mechanics review, McCarthy has a strong arm but must improve his touch. He also must improve his accuracy when throwing to the left. | Grade: 3/6.
• Work ethic chatter: Stories like this abound: McCarthy’s high school coach allowed a seventh-grade McCarthy to work out with the varsity team each Friday at 6 a.m. The coach thought McCarthy would come a couple of times. He did not miss a workout. One scout: “He’s a football junkie.” | Grade: 6/6.
• Short term outlook: McCarthy’s situation in Michigan was perfect. Minnesota is not perfect, but provides everything needed to perform in the NFL, including time (behind Sam Darnold, if necessary). | Grade: 5/6.

6. Bo Nix, Denver (Grade: 72%)

• Protection: Denver’s quietly impressive offensive line improved as the season went on and finished seventh in PFF’s rankings. They are better at run blocking than pass protection, but HC Sean Payton added additional depth this offseason. | Grade: 5/6.
• Skill players: Few household names, but a solid group of WRs led by Courtland Sutton (who has skipped voluntary workouts), sophomore Marvin Mims, Tim Patrick, Josh Reynolds and third-round WR Troy Franklin, Nix’s teammate at Oregon. | Grade: 2/6.
• Offensive system: Payton, one of the NFL’s top play callers, also has ascending QB coach Davis Webb on staff. Remember, Payton elevated Drew Brees from good to Hall of Fame-caliber. | Grade: 5/6.
• Mechanics: “Solid, polished and consistent,” was the feedback Nguyen received during his mechanics review of Nix, who ranked ahead of everyone in this group except Williams. | Grade: 5/6.
• Work ethic chatter: “He’s always in the film room, always working out,” said one scout. “He does more than what’s required and takes care of himself.” Nix’s HC at Oregon: “I feel like I gotta be better around [Bo].” | Grade: 6/6.
• Short term outlook: The second-oldest first-round QB ever drafted, Nix should be ready to start Day 1. His ability to quickly process and release the football are a perfect fit for Payton, whom Nix won over during his private workout. His supporting cast could be better, and he’ll need an improved run game to succeed. | Grade: 3/6.

Final outlook grades:

1. Caleb Williams (86%).
2. J.J. McCarthy (81%)
3. Bo Nix (72%)
4. Michael Penix Jr. (64%)
5. Jayden Daniels (55%)
6. Drake Maye (33%)

What would you change about this process? One reader suggested adding processing, arm strength and release.

MORE: | QB mechanics rankings | Pre-draft rankings of QB-needy teams | Landing spot rankings | Pre-draft QB deep dive (podcast) | Why drafting QBs is so difficult | Dynasty SuperFlex rookie mock draft | Scouts, executives rank rookie QBs pre-draft |