SAN DIEGO — The 2023 San Diego Padres ranked 15th in the majors in slugging percentage. They were 11th in BsR, FanGraphs’ all-encompassing statistic that turns stolen bases, caught stealing and other base-running plays (taking extra bases, being thrown out on the bases, etc.) into runs above or below average.
“The way I see it, we kind of got caught in between,” one Padres player said near the end of last season. “There are really good sluggers out there and teams with a lot of speed, putting pressure on other teams. We didn’t really have either of those. We were not mediocre, but not at the level of some teams.”
Feeling the loss of Juan Soto, lack of production from other stars
Through almost 20 percent of this season, the Padres might have a similar issue. San Diego entered Monday’s series opener against the speedy Cincinnati Reds (first in stolen bases and BsR) with the majors’ 11th-highest slugging percentage and 11th-highest BsR, but a decent chunk of that slugging had come in a handful of high-scoring contests. And there are series like the previous one: Across three games at Petco Park, the Padres scored a total of 10 runs. The Philadelphia Phillies, meanwhile, tallied nine home runs on their way to a sweep.
The Padres over the winter shed their best hitter, Juan Soto, and their most unexpected source of power, former waiver claim Gary Sánchez. They retained three star position players in Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts. And they have effectively replaced Trent Grisham with Jackson Merrill, who is exceeding expectations as a budding center fielder and a 21-year-old offensive catalyst. But, in terms of major-league moves, the Padres’ only offseason acquisition was the $1 million re-signing of Jurickson Profar.
Profar has been arguably a bigger surprise than Merrill. After the worst season of his career, the veteran is hitting the ball harder than ever, and six of his 10 extra-base hits through Sunday had come against a fastball. Jake Cronenworth, another bounce-back candidate, has been both productive and unlucky.
In the meantime, the greatest source of San Diego’s recent mediocrity is a familiar one: The three highest-paid members of the club are easily underperforming their career norms. Batted-ball luck aside, until Tatis, Machado and Bogaerts start hitting more, the Padres’ offense could remain stuck in an undesirable middle ground.
General manager A.J. Preller, who assembled a seemingly incomplete roster despite a $226 million luxury-tax payroll, may not have much flexibility to address the team’s holes. A promotion of Donovan Solano or an eventual trade for someone like Luis Arraez might help. But the Padres, who also face significant questions in their starting rotation, need more than a steady diet of singles. As has been the case for multiple years, they need more depth and more power.
Where does Xander Bogaerts fit best?
However many factors are behind it, Bogaerts’ dismal start at the plate cannot be blamed on the left wrist that has occasionally slowed him in past seasons. Late Saturday, after another empty showing on offense, the five-time Silver Slugger was frank about his performance and his physical status.
“I’m not doing much, but I feel good,” Bogaerts said.
The next morning, Padres manager Mike Shildt finally shook up his lineup at the top. Bogaerts was moved out of the leadoff spot for the first time this season; with right-hander Taijuan Walker starting for the Phillies, Shildt bumped the veteran all the way to the No. 5 hole. Profar, a switch hitter who batted sixth for the first 12 games of the season, was inserted atop the order.
Bogaerts is not new to batting fifth. It was his most frequent assignment last season when he made 74 starts in that spot, producing a .286/.342/.452 slash line. And, after a mostly poor summer, he flourished there in the first half of September. He was back hitting leadoff on Sept. 17 and hit .396/.417/.585 the rest of the way.
Xander Bogaerts has shown underlying signs of improvement at the plate of late. (John Hefti / USA Today)
Shildt might have been justified in not moving Bogaerts down in the lineup until he did. Despite the veteran’s lack of production, Bogaerts had been relatively unfortunate — his expected batting average and expected weighted on-base average are actually higher than they were at the end of last season — and the Padres do not have many viable leadoff alternatives.
The way he had been swinging, Profar was one of them. The switch paid some immediate dividends Sunday, as Profar went 2-for-4 with a walk and a run scored.
Can Luis Campsano help to fill the void?
Amid a fourth consecutive loss, Sunday brought a positive sign for another Padres player. Pinch-hitting for fellow catcher Kyle Higashioka in the bottom of the seventh, Luis Campusano launched a 396-foot, two-run homer to chase Walker from the mound.
It was Campusano’s first career pinch-hit homer. It also was his longest batted ball of the season and his longest batted ball of at least 350 feet since a 366-foot flyout two weeks earlier.
Campusano is batting .290, a robust clip that was tempered by subpar defense and an elevated ground-ball rate. His fly-ball percentage, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are down significantly from last year, when he slugged .491 in 174 plate appearances. Campusano entered this season as, for the first time, the Padres’ unquestioned primary catcher.
He has since struggled on defense; Campusano ranks toward the bottom of the league in Statcast’s blocking, framing and catcher’s caught-stealing metrics, although he never was considered above average behind the plate. With the defensively superior Higashioka sporting a .522 OPS entering Monday, that has only emphasized the need for Campusano to provide slugging for a team that no longer has Soto or Sánchez. Sunday’s big swing was a welcome reminder of the 25-year-old’s ability at the plate.
(Top photo of Tatis and Machado: Mark Brown / Getty Images)
