INDIANAPOLIS — Before the Pacers took a commanding 3-1 series lead against the Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday, head coach Rick Carlisle momentarily broke protocol.
Carlisle’s emotions are often tucked away behind his poker face so the deviation from the norm was noticeable. But a few hours before tipoff, the coach with nearly 140 playoff games under his belt showed some apprehension as he addressed reporters during pregame availability.
“If (Damian) Lillard and Giannis (Antetokounmpo) didn’t play another second, they’ve got plenty over there to beat us in the remainder of this series,” Carlisle said. “This will be the hardest game of this series. I’ve seen this movie too many times.”
The 64-year-old’s comments were two-fold. On paper, the Bucks without Lillard and Antetokounmpo are a weakened opponent. But they’re also the type of team that has caught the Pacers slipping on occasion. Indiana lost a combined six games to the NBA’s bottom feeders during the regular season — San Antonio, Detroit, Charlotte, Washington and Portland.
Carlisle’s words also spoke to his counterpart Doc Rivers’ coaching acumen. Rivers, who also has a championship on his résumé, has made the most of the hand that he’s been dealt. Each game has been physical and slowed down, with Rivers introducing counters in this series that Carlisle has had to adjust to.
Both coaches went head to head in the Orlando bubble, Rivers was then with the Clippers and Carlisle with the Mavericks, so both are familiar with each other. And in a matchup featuring talented players, it’s been the coaching, the in-game adjustments and the tactics that have been the difference.
“It’s been a great challenge for both of us,” Rivers said. “They’re throwing everything at us, we’re throwing everything at them. It’s the way it’s supposed to be. Actually a lot of fun. It’s the way it should be.”
Carlisle agreed.
“They threw everything at us,” he said, following Indiana’s 126-113 win in Game 4. “There will continue to be adjustments throughout. …We gotta keep adjusting to what’s going on. They’re changing things up, playing different guys, different schemes and we have to keep abreast of it and trying to counter.”
From the Pacers’ perspective, there was reason to not get confident against the Lillard-less Bucks, even with Antetokounmpo already out. Their starting lineup, re-inserting Malik Beasley in place of Lillard, had still been effective. According to Cleaning the Glass, Milwaukee’s “starters” had played 30 possessions together with an offensive rating of 143.3, a plus-21.5 net rating and a 73.3 effective field goal percentage.
A small sample size, but combined with a Pacers defense that hovered around below average for months and is just outside the bottom five playoff teams, there was reason for concern. Indiana had the 25th-ranked defense against teams with average offenses (a Khris Middleton-led Bucks team), surrendering 120.1 points per 100 possessions.
Indiana took Game 4 thanks in part to a strong finish, but this series is not done. The Bucks, as depleted as they are, still have experienced veterans and a championship-winning coach. It was a three-point game by halftime and five-point game midway through the third quarter. Game 5 in Milwaukee on Tuesday will be an emotionally charged environment. There’s also an outside chance one of Lillard or Antetokounmpo could play (Rivers said the latter had a strong workout and refused to rule out the former, who was reportedly seen out of a walking boot.) What if both players are available next week?
So the next game is shaping up to be another tactical showdown. Sunday night yielded several interesting counters on both sides. Here are a few that stood out.
Move 1: Brook Lopez, post presence
From Game 1 to Game 3, the Bucks had largely relied on Bobby Portis’ activity around the basket as their go-to source of post offense, a healthy balance to the perimeter attack of Lillard, Middleton and Lopez. But following Portis’ ejection with five minutes remaining in the first quarter, Milwaukee had a hole to fill.
Carlisle was asked about the challenge of defending a player like Lopez, a versatile big who re-invented his arsenal over the years, adding range to his bag of tricks underneath the basket. What makes him such a tough cover, especially against a team like the Pacers, is that you don’t know when Lopez wants to pop out to the 3-point line or roll to the basket. During the regular season, 38 percent of Lopez’s shots against Indiana came at the rim and 41 were from distance.
If there was one possession that showed the complexity of defending Lopez, it was this BLOB (baseline out of bounds) shortly after Portis’ ejection. Lopez, who shot 36.6 percent from 3 during the regular season is connecting on over 50 percent of his 3s in the postseason. He’s a threat, launching shots from way beyond the 3-point line. Watch as A.J. Green (20) darts to the corner and Lopez sets a flare screen for him, only for him to immediately roll toward the rim for an easy dunk. Quick, on-the-fly tweak from Rivers.
Lopez finished with 27 points on 12-for-18 shooting in Game 4 and looked like he could have gone for 40. Lopez had his way with Turner on post-ups and feasted when he was off the floor, in addition to his floor-spacing (Lopez hit three 3s). Outside of sending consistent pressure his way in the same manner as the Pacers have done Lillard, there’s not an effective counter Indiana has on the roster. They’ll need to pay extra attention to this in Game 5.
“I don’t think he missed in the first half,” Carlisle said. “Gotta keep braced for what’s coming from him.”
It was brief, but the Pacers showed one possible counter to Lopez’s paint touches — using Pascal Siakam as a weak side helper. Milwaukee comes out in “horns” with Lopez and Middleton on either elbow, which flows into a Lopez dribble handoff for Middleton. As soon as Indiana flashes two defenders on Middleton (a point we’ll get to later), Lopez rolls toward the rim. But watch Siakam who slides in and uses his length to break up the pass intended for Lopez.
Move 2: Aggressive, shifting 2-3 zone
Per Synergy, the Pacers’ half-court offense goes from the 90th percentile against man defense to 47th against zone. Opposing teams have thrown zone at Indiana when reserve guard T.J. McConnell is on the floor, aware of his shooting struggles. It’s a gamble worth taking, especially since it’s frustrated the Pacers at times during this series.
There are two ways to beat zone — playing so fast that a zone defense can’t properly get set up and also spacing the floor adequately. But there’s also a third, where McConnell’s unique skillset comes into play — dribble penetration drives.
Watch the possession below, as the Pacers get aligned before swinging the ball back to McConnell. The quick guard knows Green’s pursuit will end soon, trusting his teammate (Jae Crowder) to pick up where he left off. Crowder is, uh, a bit slower these days so McConnell’s drive attracts more than one defender at the same time Siakam inches toward the paint. Ben Sheppard — who has played well this series — relocates for the wide-open triple. On other trips, the Pacers generated 3s for Obi Toppin and Doug McDermott. Zone busters.
Move 3: Middleton, the primary ball handler and secondary scorer
With Lillard’s absence, most would assume Middleton would absorb the lion’s share of usage, taking on a heavy scoring role. Per PBP Stats, Middleton’s usage rises nine points with Lillard off the floor and 11 with Antetokounmpo.
But for the majority of Game 4, Middleton took on a secondary role, almost acting like a decoy at times, using his gravity to draw defenders in and keep the ball moving. Milwaukee generated good shots with Middleton facilitating (most assists of any Bucks starter) and looked like a real threat, only taking shots for himself that came within the flow of the offense.
But Middleton’s unselfishness came at a price. When he left the floor around the midpoint of the third, the Bucks trailed by five. By the time he returned 90 seconds later, the deficit had grown to 12. At that point, Middleton had to force the issue, which the Pacers were prepared for. Aaron Nesmith has been his primary defender all series and is solid, but deploying Andrew Nembhard as an aggressive helper — he had an awesome offensive game — bothered Middleton, who finished with 25 points but missed 13 of his 22 shots.
Since entering the league nearly a decade ago, Myles Turner has never averaged more than four 3s a game in a season. He’s also never been regarded as an elite spacer, although he’s a career 35 percent shooter from distance.
Part of the Bucks’ aggressive strategy has sent pressure at Haliburton and Siakam, allowing Turner to find gaps to take advantage of. Lopez preferring to hang closer to the rim — to deter Haliburton and Siakam— leaves Turner free to roam the perimeter but he still needs to convert enough shots to keep the defense honest. Well, through four games, Turner is launching eight 3s and hitting 50 percent of them. He led all scorers in Game 4 with 29 points and was 7-for-9 from deep. When the Bucks throw coverages like a rare box-and-1, Turner is going to be open and a pass-heavy team like the Pacers will find him. Repeatedly.
“We watched that first game and saw a lot of holes in the defense, realizing there were open spots for us to exploit,” Turner said. “A lot of it for me is read and react, which is pretty much what our offense is. I’ve been shooting 3s my entire life, man. I didn’t really shoot too many in college or coming into the league but I’ve always been capable. Continuing to put the work in and the results will show.”
(Photo: Emilee Chinn / Getty Images)
