Thank you all for submitting questions for my Indianapolis Colts pre-draft mailbag. I wouldn’t be able to do my job without your interest in and support for our work at The Athletic. This is an exciting time of the year with the NFL Draft just two days away, so without further ado, let’s dig in.
Note: Questions have been lightly edited for clarity and length.
What are the chances the Colts trade up for Marvin Harrison Jr.? — Steve D.
Colts general manager Chris Ballard recently told Rich Eisen he’d have to live in “fantasy land” to trade up for Harrison, which all but shut the door on that possibility. I understand what it would mean to Indy to bring in the son of a Colts legend, but it doesn’t seem realistic. The Colts would have to relinquish a boatload of draft capital to land a top-five pick, which goes against Ballard’s track record of collecting picks. Harrison is a star, and in this scenario, he’s too bright of a star for Indy to acquire. I blame the elder Harrison for making his son just a little too good.
.@richeisen asked #Colts GM Chris Ballard if he’s had “any thoughts” of trading up for Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
“Sure there is, when I go into fantasyland.”
“It would be very difficult for us to get up that high.”
🎥 @RichEisenShow —> https://t.co/K8KiSIPy9j pic.twitter.com/nwHytAM1Ew
— James Boyd (@RomeovilleKid) April 20, 2024
How would the draft board have to shake out on draft night to warrant a major trade up? — Zachary S.
The most realistic scenario comes if Harrison, LSU’s Malik Nabers and Georgia’s Brock Bowers are all off the board and Washington’s Rome Odunze is still available at No. 9. Assuming the Colts are sold on him and willing to trade up with the Chicago Bears, Indy would obviously have to part ways with the No. 15 pick and probably its second-round pick to acquire a receiver as special as Odunze. He has exceptional athleticism, evidenced by his 9.92 RAS (relative athletic score) and the big-play ability that could take Richardson and Indianapolis’ offense to another level. The team would essentially have two No. 1-caliber receivers in Odunze and Michael Pittman Jr.
What do you make of Peter Schrager’s recent mock draft? Is this the year Ballard gets aggressive to score a premium offensive weapon? — David T.
Schrager’s mock draft, which features the Colts trading up to No. 9 to acquire Nabers, is realistic but still unlikely. The draft board would have to fall just right, and the Colts would have to be completely convinced Nabers is a future superstar. But remember, Ballard has never traded up in the first round during the first seven years of his tenure, so it’s hard for me to see him doing that now. Ballard said this year’s draft class is deep at wide receiver, so he prefers picking whoever is available if the Colts stay put. For what it’s worth, LSU’s Brian Thomas Jr. wouldn’t be a bad consolation prize.
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The consensus top needs for the Colts seem to be a wide receiver, a cornerback and a pass rusher. Which player at another position would entice Ballard to bypass those three needs on the first two days of the draft? — Nicolas L.
Bowers is the answer here. He has drawn comparisons to San Francisco 49ers All-Pro George Kittle and former Colts All-Pro Dallas Clark, so if that’s the caliber player the Colts believe they would be getting, it’s hard to pass up on him. Bowers is ranked No. 7 overall on The Athletic’s consensus big board.
My sleeper pick is safety because Indianapolis still doesn’t have a clear idea of who will be its starting free safety. Perhaps a player like Washington State’s Jaden Hicks or Utah’s Cole Bishop would be selected early to compete for that role.
Does the lack of testing and measurements on Bowers make teams hesitate a little about spending a top-15 pick on him? — Ryhn S.
Not at all. He’s a special player, so as long as his medicals check out, he won’t have to wait long to hear his name called when the draft begins.
Do you think Ballard feels pressure to draft a top receiver/tight end to keep up with the talent levels of the teams in the AFC South? — Reilly C.
Ballard should feel pressure because he’s going into his eighth season without having won a division title. Of course he’s aware of other division rivals’ offseason additions, most notably the Houston Texans’, but that likely won’t force him to act out of character. Ballard has always been a relatively conservative GM, and after bringing back almost the same roster from last year, he’s probably content with the structure of his team. It would be naive to expect Ballard to suddenly have a change of heart and aggressively trade up in the first round. The bottom line is, whether Ballard acknowledges it or not, the Colts need a healthy Richardson to elevate the team.
I’ve been Team Ballard this whole time, but I’m losing faith. What do you think the win-loss thresholds are for him to guarantee keeping or losing his job? — Robert C.
Missing the playoffs would certainly be a huge disappointment, but I don’t believe Ballard’s job security will come down to wins and losses (unless Indianapolis falls way below .500). Maybe that’s not the answer some people want to hear, but it’s reality. Ballard will be here as long as owner Jim Irsay says so, and Irsay has given no indication Ballard is even remotely on the hot seat.
Ballard loves to draft (offensive) linemen. Where are the potential holes on the line that he might try to address on the second night? — Caleb O.
I’m not sure Ballard will spend a Day 2 pick on a lineman. That’s more of a Day 3 assignment. But if he plans to bolster the offensive line, he’d probably look at center, right guard and right tackle. Starting center Ryan Kelly, 30, and right guard Will Fries, 26, are entering the final year of their contracts. Meanwhile, starting right tackle Braden Smith, 28, is returning from knee surgery after an injury-riddled 2023 campaign. All three players still have good football left in them, but things can change fast in the NFL, and Ballard must always think ahead.
What is the one position you can see the Colts drafting in rounds 1 and 2 that will make fans say, “WHAT?!” — Aaron B.
If the Colts draft a quarterback, I’m fairly certain thousands of fans would show up at the team practice facility with pitchforks. Aside from that, a running back or defensive tackle on the first two days would be pretty inexcusable.
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Cornerback seems to be a serious need. Ballard has never used a first-round pick on a CB (though he has used seconds in the past). Is he philosophically opposed to using a No. 1 on the position? — Chris P.
I don’t think Ballard is opposed. In years past, an argument can be made the Colts didn’t need to draft a cornerback in the first round. However, that argument becomes harder to make this year if Indy passes on a first-round CB like Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell or Alabama’s Terrion Arnold in favor of a pass catcher or edge rusher. I still believe Indy should draft a CB in the first round because it’s the team’s most pressing need, but I’m not sure Ballard sees it the same way after his bullish comments on JuJu Brents, Jaylon Jones and Dallis Flowers.
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Colts’ Chris Ballard doesn’t see desperate need to draft CB, aims to ‘protect’ Anthony Richardson
Do you ever get a sense of how Colts players feel about how Ballard handles free-agency transactions? Obviously, he’s loyal to his players, but any indication from the Colts roster on Ballard rarely signing an outside free agent? — J.T. F.
In fairness, Ballard did sign free agents. He just signed his own. To that point, the in-house players are probably glad Ballard didn’t sign any outside free agents because whenever a new player comes in, it means someone likely isn’t going to get a payday and/or will see their role diminished.
There are only so many spots on an NFL roster, so if I’m a player on the team, I’d probably always appreciate a GM who believes in me and my teammates versus a GM who is constantly overhauling the roster with outside additions.
Which scenario is more likely: The Colts trade up into the top 10 to get one of the top three WRs/Bowers, or the Colts take a CB at No. 15 and trade up for a receiver who falls into the late 20s/30s (Brian Thomas Jr., Adonai Mitchell, etc.)? — Rahoul H.
I’d argue both are unlikely, but the first scenario is the most unlikely. Again, Ballard has never traded up in the first round, so I wouldn’t expect that to change. If I squint, I can see the second scenario unfolding if Indy becomes enamored of a pass catcher. However, Ballard remains confident in the young cornerbacks already on the roster, so unless he was blowing smoke, he might pass on a cornerback in the first round altogether.
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Is there a late-round prospect Colts fans should keep their eyes on? Or maybe a position we wouldn’t expect to be picked? — Jaxon S.
Look for a running back on Day 3. We’ve all kind of overlooked the significance of Zack Moss’ departure because of other, more pressing needs, but the Colts would be wise to invest in a potential backup for Jonathan Taylor, who has missed a combined 13 games due to injury over the past two years. Two running backs I like: Purdue’s Tyrone Tracy Jr. (9.78 RAS) and Louisville’s Isaac Guerendo (9.90 RAS). Both are projected as fourth- or fifth-round picks by The Athletic’s draft guru, Dane Brugler.
Given the Colts’ interest in Danielle Hunter, and their good-but-not-great edge rushers, do you think Kwity Paye/Dayo Odeyingbo could be a trade option for a more established edge rush or corner? — Dylan V.
No, Ballard remains high on Paye and Odeyingbo as they each head into their fourth seasons. I also don’t think they’d fetch a whole lot on the trade market.
(Photo of Marvin Harrison Jr.: John Fisher / Getty Images)
