Only one team scored more goals than the Toronto Maple Leafs during the regular season.
That team, the Colorado Avalanche, has punched in 11 goals through the two games of their first-round series against the Winnipeg Jets.
The Leafs? They’ve scored six goals in their first three games against the Boston Bruins — three in their win, one and then two in the losses.
GO DEEPER
How special teams cost the Maple Leafs Game 3: 4 takeaways
It’s a familiar problem for the Leafs, one that’s been haunting them since the back half of their playoff run last season when they ran out of goals at the wrong time against the Florida Panthers.
“We have to find a way to convert on those chances,” Kyle Dubas, then the Leafs GM, said not long afterward. “And we have to find a way to build in different offensive principles that can allow us to produce more at those key moments.”
Goals scored in the last 10 Leafs playoff games look like this: 2, 3, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2.
It dates back even further than that though. Over the last five postseasons, including this one, the Leafs have scored 2.76 goals per game during the playoffs, down from 3.52 goals per game during the regular season.
Toronto’s front office — with Brad Treliving taking over for Dubas as GM — was well aware of the problem. While there was a lot of talk about “snot” in the aftermath of the signings of Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi last July, most of their appeal was in the offence they might provide in support of the stars come playoff time.
And indeed, Bertuzzi and Domi have a goal each through three games.
The Leafs haven’t found enough elsewhere.
Auston Matthews and John Tavares each have one goal so far (Matthews did set up two goals in Game 2) and Mitch Marner has yet to score. Marner has registered only four shots in three games.
The Leafs have really felt the absence of William Nylander, a 40-goal man during the regular season who has yet to play in this series. They should get him back for Game 4 on Saturday. They need him, badly.
Mitch Marner has been quiet offensively through three games. (John E. Sokolowski / USA Today)
A big part of the problem so far: The power play, minus Nylander, has scored only once on 11 opportunities.
They had legitimately great chances in Game 3. Matthews wrung one shot off a post. Bertuzzi was robbed by Jeremy Swayman twice while swimming around the crease. But ultimately, five opportunities (one cut short by a Bertuzzi roughing penalty) came and went with no goals.
Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe noted the two goals scored in defeat.
“The power play needs to get you one to get you to three, if not four,” he said. “And then it’s a good night offensively in the playoffs against an elite defensive team like they are and the type of game that it is.
“The power play’s gotta find ways to get one in.”
This is not a new problem.
Though they finished seventh overall on the power play during the regular season, the Leafs cratered down the stretch of the regular season (also something that’s happened in previous seasons). From March 1 onward, the Leafs scored on just 12.5 percent of their opportunities, the fourth-worst mark in the entire league.
Injuries were partly to blame: The Leafs didn’t have Marner, a focal point for entries and puck movement, for a dozen games. And they’ve not had Nylander at all in this series.
Nylander operates from the flank opposite to Matthews, posing a two-pronged problem (he’s equally great at shooting and passing the puck) for opposing penalty kills to deal with. He led the team with 35 power-play points during the regular season.
Take him away and there’s even less space for Matthews, who led the team with 18 power-play goals during the regular season. Matthews hasn’t scored yet on the power play in the series and has landed only three shots on goal.
Having Nylander back should help him find cleaner looks. Marner filled Nylander’s spot on PP1 in Games 1-3. His shot doesn’t pose anywhere near the same threat as Nylander, nor is he anywhere near as likely to shoot it, period.
Marner has just one shot on the power play so far against the Bruins.
“We’re getting our looks, we really are,” Marner said. “It’s just staying confident in it, knowing that we have the people in here to make it successful.”
But again, this is not a new problem for the Leafs.
Aside from last year, the power play – with the same personnel up top – has struggled to convert in past playoffs.
Leafs power play in the playoffs
| Season | PP% |
|---|---|
2019-20 | 15.4 |
2020-21 | 13.0 |
2021-22 | 14.3 |
2022-23 | 25.0 |
2023-24 | 9.1 |
Is there something about the personnel, which leans far more on finesse than grease, that prevents them from converting at the same rate in the postseason?
The Leafs have scored only five five-on-five goals to this point – 2.18 per 60 minutes. That number was almost three per 60 during the regular season, second-best in the league.
“I think you’ve just gotta capitalize on your chances,” Morgan Rielly, who set up Bertuzzi’s goal in Game 3, said. “I don’t think there’s gonna be an abundance of offensive zone time where you’re rolling around and really controlling the play.”
Indeed.
Game 3 was mostly a defensive slugfest, with not much going on either way for large chunks of the game. The Bruins made it especially hard for the Leafs to wade through the neutral zone and then get anywhere near their net.
The two goals the Leafs did manage to score were templates for the kind of goals they’ll need to score more of to come back and beat the Bruins. In both instances, they attacked the blue paint – first Matthew Knies and then Bertuzzi – and were rewarded for it.
Domi scored the first Leaf goal in Game 2 similarly. He cashed in on a Matthews rebound.
Where the goals will come from moving forward remains a question.
The Leafs fourth line of Connor Dewar, David Kämpf, and Ryan Reaves will crash and bang, but they are unlikely to provide much more offensively than the goal Kämpf already offered in a Game 1 loss.
Tavares’ line has been dueling with David Pastrnak’s group all series. They got the Leafs one in Game 3, their first goal all series, in a strong two-way effort.
How much can they score, should they be expected to score, given their role in keeping things square against Pastrnak?
Using Marner in shutdown duty almost feels like a waste of his offensive gifts. He is a reigning Selke Trophy finalist and the Leafs have quietly excelled defensively in this series, particularly against Pastrnak. Marner’s line performed expertly in Game 3 especially: Expected goals were almost 87 percent for the Leafs when they were on the ice. And that was with zero offensive zone faceoffs.
Keefe and his staff are almost stuck between building a lineup that’s going to be able to defend and one that’s going to score enough. The defending has been there so far. The scoring, not so much.
The Leafs almost need Matthews’ line to score in every game. And while they carried the Leafs, led by Matthews, to a win in Game 2, the line was much less effective in Game 3. They got the Leafs their second goal and then gave it right back moments later.
All the underlying metrics were right around even. Bertuzzi and Domi have both gotten lost at times in the Brad Marchand sideshow. Keefe has replaced Bertuzzi with Marner for the occasional offensive zone faceoff throughout this series, something he might have to do more often moving forward.
Nylander’s return for Game 4 will punch things up immensely. Barring wholesale changes, Keefe will likely deploy him on the third line alongside Pontus Holmberg and Calle Järnkrok and hope that he can threaten against the weaker cogs in the Boston lineup.
The Nylander-on-the-third-line thing didn’t really work in the regular season though. Also: How will he respond after more than a week off with whatever it is that’s been bothering him?
The Leafs may get to a point in this series where they have no choice but to take a different route as far as the Pastrnak assignment goes, one that frees at least one of their better offensive players, Marner or Tavares, up for more offence.
Could they replace Marner with Järnkrok, for instance? Or might they even want to revert back to a look that sees Domi centre a third line that can threaten more offensively? Or, will they remain stuck on having Domi and Bertuzzi both alongside Matthews?
Keefe resisted wholesale change after a Game 1 loss and was rewarded for it. He’s been much more restrained in his lineup tinkering in this postseason.
How much longer will that last – can it last?
If the power play comes around, maybe major tinkering won’t be required.
The Leafs need to find more goals, somehow.
(Top photo: Mark Blinch / NHLI via Getty Images)
Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick
