Welcome to today’s MLB projections, your guide for daily baseball bets. With the help of Derek Carty’s THE BAT X and Austin Mock’s projection model, we’re sharing updated MLB odds, projections, best bets and top picks each day.
Carty and Mock both deploy intricate statistics and projection models throughout the MLB season. Of course, the end goal of all this analysis is to enhance your baseball-watching enjoyment, whether you pore over odds all day or just want some deeper info on your favorite team’s matchup.
For those new to baseball betting (first of all, welcome and how did you end up here!), we’ve included some links and brief explainers. For the data lovers and betting pros, you can skip straight to the good stuff.
In the first set of data, Derek Carty’s EV Analytics considers everything from best odds value to the day’s weather. There are playoff and World Series likelihoods, quantified as percent chances, for all MLB teams. The data has also produced betting angles and player prop insights.
Below that, every weekday you’ll find Austin Mock’s projections, including “K Prop of the Day,” his “Beat the Streak” pick and “Dinger of the Day.” Brief explanations of each are included below.
All odds you see are from BetMGM.
THE BAT X Projections
ts In the tables below, you’ll see details for each MLB matchup, then a lot of numbers: “Moneyline” shows each team’s odds on BetMGM. “Implied Win%” is the chance a team has to win based on those BetMGM odds. “THE BAT X win%” is the chance a team has to win based on EV Analytics’ projections. “Cash Line” is how THE BAT X would price each team’s odds. “Value” is the percentage difference between the odds chances and our projections.
Obviously, the higher the value percentage, the better — which you can easily see from the color coding from red (bad pick) through to green (good pick).
Note: On mobile, you may have to scroll to see the color-coded “Value” column on the far right of the first set of tables.
Austin Mock’s Model
K Prop of the Day
- Triston McKenzie under 5.5 (+105)
- Model projects him to have: 5
- Overall: 6-5 -0.15 units, -1.1% ROI
Beat the Streak pick
(Current streak: 0; season-best: 4)
- Xander Bogaerts (75.8% chance of getting a hit today)
Dinger of the Day
(Note: This isn’t so much a pick of who will hit a home run, but who has good value for a HR bet based on the model vs. the BetMGM odds)
- Juan Soto (+550)
- Model says the odds should be: +426
- Overall: 1-9, -2.50 units -25.0% ROI
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