The NFL Draft is one day away. Finally, we will get some answers to the many questions we have about coach Jim Harbaugh and general manager Joe Hortiz as they enter their first draft together with the Los Angeles Chargers.
We have done four mock drafts. We have offered various trade scenarios. We have built big boards and answered your draft questions and sifted through Hortiz’s comments from his pre-draft news conference.
What is left? For our final piece before the draft begins Thursday night, here are some lingering thoughts:
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1. I believe the Chargers’ preferred result is trading down from No. 5 in the first round and selecting an offensive lineman. But it takes two teams to make a trade, and the Chargers must receive what Hortiz called an “attractive” return to accept any offer.
So much depends on what happens in the four picks before the Chargers are on the clock. Do four quarterbacks go in the top four picks, with a team trading up with the Arizona Cardinals to No. 4? Or is Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy still on the board at No. 5, giving the Chargers leverage in discussions with a quarterback-needy team? How the first four picks unfold will dictate which teams the Chargers can negotiate with and what type of return they can garner.
My big question is this: What will the Chargers do if they do not find an acceptable trade partner and must make the pick at No. 5?
Hortiz said last week that his approach is “best player available.” That statement will truly be put to the test if the Chargers do not trade down — and especially if four quarterbacks go in the top four picks. In that scenario, Ohio State receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. would be available. Harrison is the No. 2 ranked player according to our draft expert Dane Brugler. He is ranked behind only quarterback Caleb Williams, the presumptive No. 1 pick. It would be one thing for the Chargers to pass on Harrison by trading out. It would be another thing entirely if they pass on Harrison by selecting a different player at No. 5, like Notre Dame tackle Joe Alt, who is Brugler’s top offensive lineman in the draft and No. 5 prospect.
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If Harrison goes at No. 4, a similar discussion remains. LSU receiver Malik Nabers is Brugler’s No. 3 ranked prospect. The Chargers have an obvious need at receiver. Their need along the offensive line is less pressing. When Hortiz was asked last week if he still feels like he needs a starting offensive lineman, he said, “We could go out and play football today.” Would they take Alt, or another offensive lineman, for that matter, ahead of Nabers or even Washington receiver Rome Odunze, who is Brugler’s No. 6 prospect?
There is just so much unknown about how Hortiz and Harbaugh actually want to build this roster. We have public comments, sure. They have said they want to run the ball. They have said they want to protect Justin Herbert. They have said they want to be a physical, violent, tough, smash-mouth team. Their free-agent signings aligned with that approach, but none of those additions amounted to big-swing tangible evidence. What Harbaugh and Hortiz do in the first round will reveal the organizational compass in 4K resolution.
I am a big fan of the show “Survivor,” and this week feels like the moments before a tribe goes to tribal council for the first time. The game changes when contestants vote for who they want to be eliminated. Lines are drawn. Alliances are established. Real motivations are laid bare.
Hortiz and Harbaugh are on their way to tribal council.
2. If the Chargers go with an offensive lineman in the first round, either at No. 5 or in a trade down, I will be fascinated to see when they decide to take a receiver.
Their second-round pick is No. 37. That is a potential spot, and they could come away with a quality prospect depending on how the late first round shakes out. Georgia’s Ladd McConkey, Texas’ Adonai Mitchell, Florida State’s Keon Coleman, Michigan’s Roman Wilson, Florida’s Ricky Pearsall and Texas’ Xavier Worthy are all options. The Chargers could also wait until the third round, with players like Oregon’s Troy Franklin, Washington’s Ja’Lynn Polk, South Carolina’s Xavier Legette, Virginia’s Malik Washington or North Carolina’s Devontez Walker as possible picks. Legette might end up going earlier than the Chargers’ pick at No. 69.
How the Chargers approach this position will be very telling. They moved on from Mike Williams and Keenan Allen this offseason for cap reasons. I do not think those moves, by themselves, reveal how Hortiz and Harbaugh feel about the receiver position in general. But if the Chargers replace those two players with, say, a third-round pick and a post-draft free agent signing, that would be the clearest indication yet of how this new regime values the position.
If the Chargers pass on a receiver at No. 5, do they target someone like Texas’ Adonai Mitchell at No. 37? (Jerome Miron / USA Today)
3. A lot of the pre-draft discussions around the Chargers have focused on offense, and that is partly a function of how offensive-loaded the front of this draft class is. But entering this weekend, the Chargers have more needs on defense than they do on offense. And I will be curious to see how they approach filling these needs in the draft and through undrafted free agents.
They are lacking on the interior of their defensive line. They are lacking at inside linebacker. They are lacking at cornerback. They are lacking at safety behind starters Derwin James Jr. and Alohi Gilman.
The defensive depth chart shows how much of a rebuild this year is for Hortiz and Harbaugh.
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On a positive note, the Chargers have positioned themselves to really maximize value in how they attack these needs. They will not be focused on any one defensive position because they have holes at so many positions.
On a negative note, they only have some many picks as it stands. And it will be nearly impossible to get starter-level players at four different defensive positions, even if they accrue additional 2024 capital in a trade down. If James is going to be moving around — and that is the indication — then that third safety turns into a really important position on the roster, one that is not filled right now with the only other safeties on the roster being JT Woods and AJ Finley.
If they stay at No. 5, I could see the Chargers addressing any of these defensive positions as early as the second round. In a trade down, I think they target offensive line in the first round, but cornerback is a big need, and they could have a chance at Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell or Alabama’s Terrion Arnold. Defensive tackle Byron Murphy is also Brugler’s No. 16 ranked player.
If the Chargers trade down from No. 5, a player like Texas DT Byron Murphy could become an option. (Aaron E. Martinez / USA Today)
4. Before free agency, center was one of the biggest needs on the roster. The Chargers lessened the level of that need by signing an experienced starter in Bradley Bozeman. Harbaugh and Hortiz have said they think Jordan McFadden, a 2023 fifth-round pick, has center flexibility. Hortiz feels the Chargers “have good depth” at center coming into the draft.
Do the Chargers really feel that is the case? They are hoping Bozeman returns to the form he showed in Baltimore, before a down year with the Carolina Panthers in 2023. I do not think that is a bad bet, considering what a mess the Panthers were last season. The best year of Bozeman’s career came in 2021 while playing for former Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman, now the Chargers’ play caller.
Bozeman as the starter, McFadden and Brenden Jaimes as depth. It could work as a stopgap for 2024. But we also saw what happened when the Chargers lost Corey Linsley last season. I would want more reliable depth and also some true competition for Bozeman in 2024.
If the Chargers trade back and pick up an additional first-round pick in the 20s, they could go after Duke’s Graham Barton, Oregon’s Jackson Powers-Johnson or West Virginia’s Zach Frazier, Brugler’s top three centers. Frazier might be there at No. 37. There are also options in the middle rounds, like Wisconsin’s Tanor Bortolini or Penn State’s Hunter Nourzad.
What the Chargers do at center in this draft will tell us a lot about how they really feel about the Bozeman plan.
(Top photo of Jim Harbaugh and Joe Hortiz: Kirby Lee / USA Today)
