Fantasy Premier League managers arrive at a key crossroads regarding their transfers this week as double gameweek season peaks.
There is a temptation to rip up our squads to maximise the fixtures, chasing those with six games left between now and the end of the season over players who have only four.
But do we always have to play the fixtures or should we stay loyal to those FPL players who got us this far?
Form vs fixtures
I believe myself to be a patient manager in FPL and generally prioritise form players over those who have the best run of upcoming fixtures. My feeling is that, on the whole, the consistent players tend to be fixture-proof and should repay loyalty over games given their broader routes to Fantasy returns.
However, all of that logic goes out of the window when it comes to double gameweeks, as the temptation to back those who play twice becomes too difficult to ignore. My logic for a double gameweek — a rare event in FPL — is that the more tickets to the lottery, the better.
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To play FPL well, patience is everything — and these occasional doubles give justifiable licence to rip up the rule book. However, going all in doesn’t always produce the desired outcome. Luck remains a huge factor and there have been many occasions in which rotation and a lack of minutes hinder output.
There have also been instances in which a player with a double gameweek picks up an injury in their first game — such as Darwin Nunez (£7.8m) in Gameweek 25 and Diogo Jota (£7.9million) this gameweek. It can seriously derail planning and progress.
If we look at the double gameweeks we’ve had already this season, Carlton Morris (£4.9m) was the sole entrant in FPL’s team of the week when Luton Town and Burnley doubled in Gameweek 7, with the striker racking up 12 points.
Five double gameweek assets made the team of the week in Gameweek 25, with Liverpool’s Alexis Mac Allister (£5.9m) the player of the week on 17 points, but the final line-up lacked any popular picks.
It was a similar story in Gameweek 28, in which Luton and Bournemouth played twice. Four Bournemouth players made the team of the week but highly-owned Dominic Solanke (£7.3m) wasn’t one of them, scoring eight points.
In general, it’s wise to cover the likely key captaincy assets ahead of a double gameweek but it’s never guaranteed where the hauls will land, so finding balance is important.
The best double gameweek targets
Looking to the final four gameweeks of the season, Chelsea and Spurs players are increasing in popularity given they have the maximum six fixtures remaining over this time.
However, Spurs still have to face the top three in this period: they play Arsenal in their first fixture of Gameweek 35 before meeting Liverpool in Gameweek 36 and Manchester City in one of two fixtures in Gameweek 37.
With just six clean sheets this season and one shutout in 2024 for Spurs, it’s not necessary to cover their defence given the challenge of the upcoming games.
In attack, Son Heung-min (£9.8m) is the key player to accommodate since he is playing out of position as their striker and he’s captain. He is at a difficult price point, though, in a saturated pool of midfield options.
One positive is that Spurs assets should be primed to perform as they remain in contention for fourth place in the Premier League table, battling Aston Villa for the final Champions League spot.
Son is Tottenham’s most sensible FPL asset (Adrian Dennis/AFP via Getty Images)
Chelsea will also be motivated to secure European football next season, with their initial double gameweek tougher than Spurs before the schedule improves.
But there are question marks in Mauricio Pochettino’s squad — compounded by a 5-0 defeat to Arsenal — with illness for star performer Cole Palmer (£6.2m), an injury doubt for Malo Gusto (£4.3m), and the threat of suspension for Nicolas Jackson (6.8m).
Palmer is the key short-term target, but it’s perhaps unnecessary to load up on Chelsea assets until Gameweek 36 when the landscape will be clearer concerning injuries and form.
Aside from Chelsea and Spurs, we have four other sides with a double in Gameweek 37: Manchester City, Brighton, Manchester United and Newcastle United.
Since Manchester City are out of the Champions League and don’t play their FA Cup final until six days after the conclusion of the Premier League, rotation by Pep Guardiola shouldn’t be as prevalent a problem.
Newcastle United and Manchester United remain in the hunt for European spots, although we do need to be aware of their form and the volume of injuries in their respective squads.
Single gameweek players deserving your loyalty
Players from Liverpool and Arsenal are among the most-sold this week, with Mohamed Salah (£13.6m) and Bukayo Saka (£9.0m) transferred out despite being among the leading FPL scorers in the game.
However, with both sides still in contention to win the title, it’s a high-risk strategy to sell their star players in favour of individuals with more fixtures.
I would deem Salah a keeper until the end of the season given he ranks fourth for goal involvements in this campaign, with 17 goals and nine assists, despite the temptation to free up those funds and a midfield spot. Saka, along with Martin Odegaard (£8.6m), is another potential hold given his form this season and, as Arsenal’s talisman, his routes to points are plentiful.
Arsenal’s Saka is a premium option without a double gameweek before the end of the season (Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)
Arsenal defenders Gabriel (£5.4m) and William Saliba (£5.9m) remain highly owned and are key to their side’s defensive foundation.
With Arsenal having earned a league-leading 16 clean sheets this season — six more than anyone else — both players are worthy assets, especially since there’s a lack of credible defensive options elsewhere. However, a double-up is hard to justify, especially with trips to Spurs and Manchester United in the weeks when other sides double.
Ollie Watkins (£8.9m) and Solanke are both in the Golden Boot race, with 19 and 18 goals respectively — just shy of the 20 goals scored by Palmer and Erling Haaland (£14.2m) this season.
With Watkins leading the way for goal involvements this season — 36 in 33 games — he looks to be a must-keep until the very end. Watkins remains in over a third of FPL teams — although we do need to be mindful of his Villa’s continued involvement in the Europa Conference League.
It’s worth keeping Solanke for at least one more week ahead of Bournemouth playing Brighton at home and then selling in Gameweek 36 when his team travel to Arsenal.
(Top photos: Son Heung-min, left, and Mohamed Salah; Getty Images)
