Dugar: Why this NFL Draft will shape Seahawks GM John Schneider’s legacy

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Dugar: Why this NFL Draft will shape Seahawks GM John Schneider’s legacy

The Seattle Seahawks’ removal of Pete Carroll from his role as head coach and vice president of football operations created the perception that general manager John Schneider finally has full control of the team after 14 years of deferring to Carroll on matters of roster construction.

Schneider has spent part of the last few months dispelling that notion.

In his first news conference after Carroll transitioned to an advisory role, Schneider was asked about the significance of having the opportunity to run the organization. Schneider replied, “I don’t feel like I haven’t been running the organization. I understand the question, but I don’t feel like there’s been one person necessarily running the organization.”

Schneider now has final say on personnel matters, but he said in a radio interview on April 4 that his role is “exactly the same” as it was before and although Carroll previously had veto power, he seldom used it.

“Pete was amazing,” Schneider said. “He could have been that guy that put his foot down like, ‘Contractually, at the end of the day I have final say here.’ He rarely, rarely, rarely did in 15 years. He never said, ‘Hey, we’re not doing this,’ or, ‘We’re going to do this.’ It was more along the lines of, I could tell he didn’t feel good about a trade or an acquisition. I could feel that, so why would we force that and why head down that road?

“But, yeah, (my role) hasn’t changed in that regard.”

In the past, Schneider and Carroll held an annual pre-draft news conference at the Virginia Mason Athletic Center. This year, Schneider didn’t speak and instead, the team made his top four personnel staffers available: assistant general manager Nolan Teasley, vice president of player personnel Trent Kirchner, senior director of player personnel Matt Berry and director of college scouting Aaron Hineline. Teasley, the GM’s top lieutenant, echoed the sentiment Schneider has been expressing all offseason.

“John was in control on draft day,” Teasley said, “and will continue to be.”

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Aside from the coaching staff skipping the scouting combine to get caught up on playbook installation, Seattle’s offseason hasn’t looked different than in previous years. Schneider shed some expensive veteran contracts, prioritized retention over splashy external signings in free agency and basically went bargain shopping to fill out the depth chart. Schneider sticking to his M.O. following Carroll’s transition supports his claim that the chain of command is largely unchanged.

But the official word from Schneider and his assistants will not completely erase the perception that Carroll had significant influence over the construction of the roster. Remember, Carroll said in his exit news conference that Schneider had been sitting and waiting 14 years for the opportunity to run the show.

Whether he likes it or not, perception is often reality, which is why the 2024 draft will be a legacy-defining moment for Schneider.

It’s the first draft in which there will be no questions about whether the head coach influenced the selections. If Schneider nails this draft, he would get the bulk of the credit and start to separate himself from the success he and Carroll had together, while also setting up the organization to flourish without the best coach in franchise history. Schneider’s already strong legacy would get a narrative-shifting boost, not unlike Tom Brady’s after he won a championship in his first season without Bill Belichick.

If Schneider flops and acquires a collection of players that looks more like the 2021 class than the haul in 2022, he would get the bulk of the blame, and the perception of him as a general manager would be altered, similar to how views of Russell Wilson changed when he struggled in his first season away from Carroll.

One draft, whether good or bad, won’t erase all that Schneider has done in 14 years with the Seahawks. But this weekend is nonetheless a litmus test, and there’s undoubtedly a pass-or-fail element to it.

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Some of this is a natural consequence of the decisions that team owner Jody Allen and Schneider made in January. Removing Carroll and all but one of his assistant coaches were the only real changes in the organization. The Seahawks kept the same strength and conditioning staff, executives and contract negotiator (though Matt Thomas has since resigned, as of April 3). Their free-agency philosophy went unchanged, and their draft strategies — at least based on everything they have said publicly; we’ll see how things play out this week — have not shifted.

Translation: Carroll and his coaches were the problem.

Sending that message comes with increased scrutiny, starting with free agency. The early returns appear underwhelming on paper. Schneider replaced Bobby Wagner, Jordyn Brooks, Will Dissly, Damien Lewis, Evan Brown, Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs with Tyrel Dodson, Jerome Baker, Pharaoh Brown, Laken Tomlinson, Nick Harris, K’Von Wallace and Rayshawn Jenkins, who is the only player of that bunch to sign a multiyear contract (swing tackle George Fant also signed a two-year deal in free agency). These moves don’t appear to have pushed Seattle much closer to achieving its stated goal of contending for a championship.

This is why the 2024 draft is so important for Schneider. If he’s been steering the ship all along, then he hasn’t earned much time to turn things around. The team might have underachieved last season relative to its talent, but the roster construction has been far from perfect the last few years, which is why a mini rebuild was necessary in the first place. All of those outsized veteran deals, questionable contract restructures, free-agent misses and trades for proven players to make up for bad drafting are decisions that fall on Schneider’s shoulders. In terms of team building and resource allocation, Schneider is cleaning up a mess he was responsible for making.

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The team’s moves in free agency have been largely underwhelming since Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril signed team-friendly deals in 2013. The big swings via trade for Percy Harvin, Jimmy Graham, Sheldon Richardson and Adams were unsuccessful. The offensive line has been a position of need since the team’s Super Bowl appearance after the 2014 season.

Schneider hit the jackpot in his first three drafts (2010-12), though it’s hard to ignore the impact Carroll and his staff had on those classes. Schneider struggled to find high-end talent in subsequent drafts, selecting just one Pro Bowl defender from 2013 to 2021 (cornerback Shaquill Griffin made it in 2019). He has never drafted a Pro Bowl pass rusher, none of his first-round picks from 2011 to 2020 had his fifth-year option picked up and only one draft pick on the offensive line (Justin Britt) has signed a multiyear extension with Seattle.

To Schneider’s credit, he’s been good at the hardest part of his job: finding a quarterback. He drafted a potential Hall of Fame quarterback (Wilson) in the third round, got rid him of 10 years later in a blockbuster deal that is aging like wine, and acquired a successor (Geno Smith) who has played a Pro Bowl level for the past two seasons. The Seahawks don’t have to force a pick at quarterback in this draft because they have a competent starter and a capable backup (Sam Howell), both on affordable contracts.

Schneider’s last two drafts have produced starting offensive tackles, multiple Rookie of the Year finalists and a pair of Pro Bowlers (albeit at cornerback, a position considered to be Carroll’s specialty). He is trending in the right direction. A third straight draft in which Schneider lands multiple immediately impactful players would be vindicating, just like the 2022 season was for Carroll. Another failed draft would invite criticisms that Schneider is past his peak and not the guy to take Seattle back to the mountaintop, just like Carroll experienced in 2023.

At his farewell news conference, in addition to saying the GM had been waiting 14 years for this opportunity, Carroll warned Schneider about what was to come.

“Now he’s going to find out,” Carroll said before turning to Schneider in the audience and repeating the sentiment. “You’re gonna find out, big fella.”

Carroll didn’t elaborate, but the dots aren’t hard to connect. This weekend is probably one of the moments Carroll had in mind. For the first time, Schneider is viewed as the head honcho, and with that comes more acclaim for the triumphs and more scrutiny for the failures. Whether he’s in for more of the former or a heavy dose of the latter will be determined by the moves he makes this weekend.

“The Beast,” Dane Brugler’s expansive guide to the NFL Draft, is here. 

(Photo of John Schneider, left, and Pete Carroll: Lindsey Wasson / Associated Press)