The NFL Draft begins on Thursday and the only certainty of the made-for-TV event is that Caleb Williams will go No. 1.
There never was much of a debate, was there? Just a lot of hot air. (Cue the Windy City joke.)
For the Bears and GM Ryan Poles, keeping the pick to draft Williams was a no-brainer. But just like quarterbacks, NFL GMs have to recognize the short throws that can turn into big gains.
Williams at No. 1 is Carolina’s gift to Chicago — some might say Panthers owner David Tepper has done more for the Bears’ odds of winning than any McCaskey — but the ninth pick is the one the Bears earned with their own subpar performance last season and it comes with its own opportunity, one that can’t be squandered.
So what should the Bears do with No. 9? Well, it’s a good problem to have.
The Bears need talent. The Bears need depth. So what’s a GM to do? Well, Poles has these three choices.
1. He could keep the pick and select the best player available (not including QBs).
2. He could trade down and acquire more picks, given that the Bears only have four left.
3. He could trade up if someone like Marvin Harrison Jr. is available and there’s a deal to be made.
Let’s be clear. He shouldn’t think about No. 3. I’m all for big swings (cue the Daniel Burnham quote), but this is a critical time for the franchise — and not just this season. Poles needs to keep replenishing the roster with low-cost, high-ceiling players year after year. He has a full array of picks in 2025, but he should be valuing them instead of using them as trade fodder.
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Poles has already traded second-round picks in each of the last two seasons for veteran players. The move didn’t quite succeed with receiver Chase Claypool (it was a disaster) but it seems to have worked with defensive end Montez Sweat, who changed the look of the Bears defense in 2023. Poles also traded a fourth-round pick in this draft for receiver Keenan Allen this offseason, which is sensible.
Poles’ predecessor Ryan Pace was big on trading up in the draft and also for overusing the word “conviction,” which he said six times after trading up one pick to make sure he could get Mitch Trubisky. (Editor’s note: Lol.)
“Yeah, I think, you know, if we want to be great you just can’t sit on your hands, you know?” Pace said after making the deal in 2017. “There’s times when you’ve got to be aggressive and when you have conviction on a guy, you can’t sit on your hands. I just don’t want to be average around here, I want to be great. And these are the moves you have to make.”
Four years later, Pace traded up again to get Justin Fields at No. 11, giving up two picks in 2021 and first- and fourth-round picks the next year. An understandable gamble and also a costlier one. Pace is now an ex-GM.
Trading up can work out (in the Trubisky draft, the Chiefs traded up to No. 10 to take another quarterback, though I can’t remember his name) and if a guy like Harrison is available, it’s something to think about. But Pace’s gambles are perfect examples of how difficult it is to make these calls and how easy it is to fall prey to your own cognitive biases.
As The Athletic’s Alec Lewis detailed in a recent story, NFL teams often overestimate their own abilities to discern stars from flops and, as Pace showed, they frequently overvalue their opportunities to trade up. GMs know this, but they’re human and fallible to logic follies just like the rest of us. (This is why I get a kick out of them acting like super secret agents with all the subterfuge.)
It’s not a secret. Smart, successful teams consistently trade down and acquire more picks. It’s not sexy, but neither are the short anticipation throws that make NFL quarterbacks a lot of money.
If Rome Odunze or one of the top receivers isn’t available at No. 9, or lineman Joe Alt, the Bears could benefit by trading down in the first round. (Jamie Schwaberow / Getty Images)
Poles should have a very short list of players the Bears have to take at No. 9. Mainly the receiving trio of Harrison, Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze and maybe one of the offensive linemen like Notre Dame tackle Joe Alt. These are guys who are ranked in the top six of The Athletic’s Dane Brugler’s recent draft rankings. So there’s value there.
If that happens, great. But Poles’ focus should be on being ready to trade down. Get a lower first-round pick and see if you can add multiple picks this year and the next. Right now, the Bears’ only two picks after the first round are the 75th pick (third round) and the 122nd pick (fourth). That’s not ideal for a team with holes.
The Bears need more picks and having two first-rounders gives them a window to get them. Poles has shown his belief in this strategy before so I have to believe he’ll explore it again, given his roster. I wouldn’t be surprised if he trades down twice, if the chances arise.
It’s no secret the value picks in the draft come after the first round.
Which reminds me: The last time the Bears had two first-rounders in one draft was in 2003 when they took defensive end Michael Haynes at 14 and Rex Grossman at 22. Grossman was, of course, the quarterback that took them to the Super Bowl, and that’s where his limitations became painfully obvious.
Grossman’s failure led to the team’s 15-year odyssey of chasing “elite” quarterbacks, which resulted in three would-be saviors, three playoff appearances and a whole lot of civic heartbreak.
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But that draft was also where then-GM Jerry Angelo hit the jackpot with the 35th and 68th picks, getting defensive stalwarts Charles Tillman and Lance Briggs.
Yes, getting a quarterback like Williams could finally break the cycle of suck for the Bears and it would be pretty cool to see a young receiver like Harrison, Odunze or Nabers team up with him.
But if Poles is really the GM to break the cycle in Chicago, he has to think about what’s best for the entire roster in this draft. The answer to his good problem at No. 9? Trade down and build up.
(Top photo: Kamil Krzaczynski / USA Today)
