Burnley, the team with nine lives.
With their 4-1 victory over Sheffield United on Saturday and Everton’s win at the City Ground yesterday, Burnley are within three points of fourth-bottom Nottingham Forest with four games each to play.
They shouldn’t have a chance. Any great escape still seems improbable.
Yet Burnley continue to refuse to lie down and accept their fate.
In late February, manager Vincent Kompany said putting together a run of positive results was crucial. His comments followed a demoralising 5-0 home defeat against Arsenal. In the next two games, away to Crystal Palace and Bournemouth at Turf Moor, Burnley lost twice more.
Never mind a run of results, how about getting just one?
Burnley dropped 11 points off safety and looked doomed to an instant return to an EFL they left as its champions 12 months ago. Only mathematics was keeping them alive.
Since then however, they have quietly suffered only one defeat in seven, winning twice and getting four draws.
In an alternative universe where goalkeeping howlers and poor refereeing decisions don’t exist, it would probably read seven unbeaten and a higher win total than two, with the gap to 17th already bridged.
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Unfortunately, that universe is not this one, but in a season where criticism has been frequent for Kompany and his players, they deserve credit for their recent courage, attitude and performances.
The manager has chopped and changed personnel, and tweaked and tinkered with his tactics and, largely, it has been unsuccessful. There have been improvements individually and collectively but Burnley have fallen short too often due to either a lack of quality or individual errors.
On another day, Arijanet Muric controls Sander Berge’s pass against Brighton. On another day, Muric goes long quickly against Everton and it is 0-0 at Goodison Park at half-time. On another day, Rayan Ait-Nouri’s untouched pirouette and fall was not given as a foul and there was no Wolves free kick to defend.
(Stu Forster/Getty Images)
Kompany has preached development for his promoted side throughout the campaign and this run has shown they have finally taken another crucial step. For months, the 38-year-old has been pleased that Burnley have been competitive in just about every game. Now they have learnt how to compete for results, while still carrying imperfections.
It has been too easy to beat Burnley. All opponents have had to do is wait a bit, and Kompany’s men have found a way to push the self-destruction button. They’ve not shaken the art of finding new ways to drop points quite yet, but they are now putting themselves in positions from which to win games.
They have taken the lead in five of the seven matches in this run. They’ve generated a momentum built on belief and confidence. While other sides at the bottom of the Premier League are trending in the wrong direction, Burnley are heading in the right one, even if it may prove too little, too late.
“I don’t think you start having confidence because you have a result,” Kompany said. “You have to build it yourself. Seven games, one defeat and fairly unlucky in games. We just need an opportunity to fight for it, we’re not asking for more than that. We’ll do what we’ve done: no fear, go all out, be aggressive and try and turn our luck in the (penalty) boxes.
“Not necessarily because we’re looking at other results but (at) momentum. When you’ve only lost one in seven and you’ve left the game with a win, what more do you need? The nature of the opponent that we play is always a difficult task but there is no reason for us to not feel like if we put in the performance again we have a chance to have a result.”
Their system has not changed from the 4-2-3-1 in possession and 4-4-2 out of possession but their execution of it has improved.
Burnley are much tougher to score against. Goalkeeping calamities aside, promotion-season star Muric has been an exceptional shot-stopper since returning to the starting line-up a month ago. He made two crucial saves first from Oli McBurnie and then Ben Brereton Diaz when Saturday’s match was still goalless.
Winter-window defensive loanees Lorenz Assignon, who contributed a goal and assist at Bramall Lane, and Maxime Esteve have been upgrades and the more integrated they have become with their new team-mates, the more settled Burnley have looked.
Josh Cullen and Berge have finally become the reliable midfield axis Kompany envisaged when the latter was signed in the summer, offering safety when in possession and a shield without it.
The attacking third remains the biggest question mark.
Burnley are progressing the ball up to the opponent’s penalty area efficiently, but struggling for composure and quality once it gets there. It clicked for their attackers against Sheffield United, with winger and top scorer Jacob Bruun Larsen netting his sixth goal of the season and striker Lyle Foster his first of 2024.
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The elephant in the room is they shouldn’t have this chance.
Point deductions have been their biggest ally and kept Everton (eight points deducted) and Forest (four) within reach.
The lowest points tally to keep a team in the top flight during the Premier League era is the 34 West Bromwich Albion got in 2004-05. If Burnley were to win their four remaining games (imagine!), they would finish with 35.
Survival would probably be overshadowed by a huge asterisk because of the punishments meted out to Everton and Forest but, come the first day of the 2024-25 season, if Burnley are in the Premier League, with millions more in television money banked, and their squad a year older and wiser, would they care? Not a jot.
Following that defeat to Bournemouth in early March, Opta put Burnley’s survival chances at 0.6 per cent. After the weekend’s action, it still only stands at 6.8 per cent. It is a reminder of the size of the task.
The fixtures now get tougher, with Manchester United, Newcastle and Tottenham, the first and last of those away, upcoming before a potential final-day relegation duel at home against Forest on May 19. They must overtake two of Luton, Forest and Everton, who are now seven points clear of Burnley with a game in hand after their Sunday win, to stay up.
Sheffield United manager Chris Wilder preceded Kompany into the press conference room post-match and admitted defeat in his last-placed side’s attempts to avoid relegation.
The Burnley manager’s tone and demeanour when he spoke later were vastly different — his side live to fight another day.
(Top photo: Stu Forster/Getty Images)
