There is no position that can change the outlook of a playoff series more than goaltending performance — not always in a positive way, either. It can turn average teams into contenders in an instant and contenders into pretenders just as quickly. Goaltending is always the biggest X-factor in a playoff series, and a lot of important goalies are taking center stage on Sunday as the Stanley Cup Playoffs continue.
In Tampa Bay, the Lightning could become an instant threat to win it all if Andrei Vasilevskiy can start playing like, well, Andrei Vasilevskiy again. The 2023-24 season has been a difficult one for him as he missed the first month of the season recovering from offseason surgery and never really played at his normal level. Their series with Florida begins on Sunday, and given how much the Lightning can score a Vasilevskiy-type playoff performance could make them an extremely tough out.
The Presidents’ Trophy-winning Rangers have some truly elite skaters in forward Artemi Panarin and defenseman Adam Fox, but the player that really sets them apart is Igor Shesterkin. He has a .932 save percentage since February 1 and has gone into Superman mode over the past three months. Whatever flaws the Rangers might have go away when he plays like that. They open their series with the Washington Capitals.
It is a similar story in Winnipeg where Connor Hellebuyck has put a strong MVP case together with his performance in helping to lead the Jets to a 52-win, 110-point season. He gives them a huge and decisive advantage — on paper, anyway — in their first-round series against the Colorado Avalanche, who have not received any consistent goaltending all season and have had some of the worst goaltending of any playoff team in the field this season.
The best goaltending matchup in the first round, at least in terms of quality on both sides, might be in the Vancouver-Nashville series, where the Canucks’ Thatcher Demko goes against the Predators’ Juuse Saros.
It is not oversimplifying things to say it is the most important position in the playoffs. Sometimes you just can’t predict who is going to get the play they need and who isn’t.
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Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers — Game 1
How to watch: 12:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, SN360
Key takeaways
- Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy had the worst individual season of his career, producing only a .900 save percentage for the season. Combined with his backups, the Lightning ranked 28th in the NHL in team save percentage, lowest among playoff teams.
- Lightning forward Nikita Kucherov won his second scoring title this season and set a career high with 144 points, shattering his previous personal best of 128 points.
- The Panthers enter the playoffs allowing just 2.41 goals per game, and they are tied for the lowest mark in the NHL. That is almost a 180-degree turnaround from a year ago, when they entered the playoffs 21st in goals against per game.
- The playoff performance of Sergei Bobrovsky will always be a talking point because of how much he struggled throughout his career. But over the past two years with the Panthers, he has posted a very strong .914 save percentage, a 16-12 record and helped the Panthers win four playoff series.
- This has developed into one of the NHL’s most underrated — and fiercest — on-ice rivalries in recent years, and it will be the third playoff meeting in the past five years. Tampa Bay has won the previous two series.
Expert picks
Washington Capitals vs. New York Rangers — Game 1
How to watch: 3 p.m. ET on ESPN, SN
Key takeaways
- The Capitals minus-37 goal differential is the worst for a playoff team since the 1990-91 season when the Hartford Whalers (minus-38) and Vancouver Canucks (minus-72) qualified for the playoffs. In that season, 16 of the 21 teams in the league qualified for the playoffs.
- The one big bright spot for the Capitals, aside from Alex Ovechkin’s recent surge, has been the surprising play of goalie Charlie Lindgren. He has shockingly emerged as the Capitals’ starter and has been playing lights-out hockey over the past two months, owning a .916 save percentage since March 1.
- Speaking of goalies, New York’s Igor Shesterkin is one of the league’s best and has also taken his game to another level in the second half of the season. His overall save percentage of .912 for the season is well above the league average. Since February 1, it is a staggeringly good .930 in 23 starts.
- The Rangers still have some small issues during 5-on-5 play, but they are better than they have been in recent years. Their real danger comes on the power play where they own the league’s third-best power play rate at 26.4 percent.
- Only two Presidents’ Trophy winners have won the Stanley Cup in the salary cap era (since 2005-06) and none since the 2012-13 Chicago Blackhawks. At some point that drought will end.
Expert picks
Colorado Avalanche vs. Winnipeg Jets — Game 1
How to watch: 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2, SN
Key takeaways
- Whatever flaws the Winnipeg Jets might have get hidden by starting goalie Connor Hellebuyck. He is in the top five in goals against average, save percentage and shutouts while playing more than 60 games every year.
- Whatever strengths the Colorado Avalanche might have are at risk of being undone by their goaltending. Their .902 team save percentage is the third-worst among playoff teams. They have overcome questionable goaltending to win a Stanley Cup before, but it was never this bad during the 2021-22 season.
- It is a true battle of strengths as the Avalanche enter the series as the league’s highest-scoring team (3.68 goals per game) while the Jets are tied for the league’s best goals against average (2.41 goals against per game).
- The Jets not only swept the regular season series by winning all three games, they won those games by a combined 17-4 margin on the scoreboard.
- The Avalanche have three of the NHL’s top 17 point producers this season, with Nathan MacKinnon (second), Mikko Rantanen (eighth) and Cale Makar (17th) all among the league’s leaders. Mark Scheifele is the only Jets player to appear in the top 50, and he is 49th.
Expert picks
Nashville Predators vs. Vancouver Canucks — Game 1
How to watch: 10 p.m. ET on ESPN2, SN
Key takeaways
- The Predators are playing their best hockey at the right time of the season, carrying a 20-5-3 record in their past 28 games into the playoffs. They only played 10 playoff teams in that stretch but did go 6-3-1 against them.
- Nashville goalie Juuse Saros has had a down year by his standards, but he is still very capable of getting hot and putting the team on his back. He has a .912 save percentage during the Predators’ late-season surge.
- The Canucks lineup is loaded with impact players at the top (Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes, J.T. Miller, Brock Boeser), but their most important player is goalie Thatcher Demko. Getting a fully healthy and productive version of him this season is arguably the biggest factor in their turnaround in the standings.
- The Predators ended up making two of the best free-agent signings of the offseason: Ryan O’Reilly and Gustav Nyquist. Both have provided strong offense (combining for 49 goals between them; 23 for Nyquist and 26 for O’Reilly) while O’Reilly has given them a legit top-line, two-way center. He is the type of player that can make a big impact in the playoffs.
- Canucks defenseman Quinn Hughes has seen his offense progressively improve each year he has been in the league. His 17 goals this season were eight more than he has ever scored in an NHL season, while his 92 points led all NHL defensemen.
Expert picks
(Photo of Alexander Ovechkin: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)
