The 59th minute of the 1,312th and final game of the NHL regular season changed two playoff matchups at the 11th hour — a fitting end to a wild, dizzy, up-and-down year in which no genuine Stanley Cup contender emerged.
Consider: The Los Angeles Kings had a chance to avoid a third consecutive playoff date with the Edmonton Oilers if they’d just meekly gone away in a game that was theirs to lose. But then the Kings scored the tying goal against Chicago with goaltender Cam Talbot on the bench and the Blackhawks’ Philipp Kurashev in the penalty box after he’d accidentally flipped the puck over the glass, creating a six-on-four advantage for the Kings. Ultimately, they won the game in OT, which gave them another crack at the Oilers and switched things around for the defending champion Vegas Golden Knights. For a while, it looked as if Vegas was heading to Edmonton, but now they’re facing the Dallas Stars in a rematch of last year’s nasty Western Conference final which featured, among other things, a two-game suspension for Dallas captain Jamie Benn for cross-checking Vegas captain Mark Stone in the neck. Chaos is good, right? We’ll know soon.
Our annual playoff predictions — featuring an anonymous executive, scout and coach — are here. Let’s begin.
Eastern Conference
Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
The Battle of Florida is the showcase series of the opening round, featuring a Panthers team that made it to the Final a year ago and Tampa Bay, a cross-state rival with a long and decorated Stanley Cup history. Discipline and special teams loom large here.
Tampa Bay had the NHL’s top power play (28.6 percent success rate) while Florida had the sixth-best penalty-killing unit, along with four players who’d earned 80 minutes or more in penalties. That includes the all-world pest, Matthew Tkachuk, plus Sam Bennett and Nick Cousins. If the Panthers get into penalty trouble, Tampa Bay has a way of making them pay. And while pedigree suggests Tampa Bay has the edge in goal — Andrei Vasilevskiy over Sergei Bobrovsky — our scout isn’t sure that is necessarily true anymore.
“Vasilevskiy the last two playoffs hasn’t been a difference-maker,” said our scout. “He has to have a really good playoff to reverse that. Even in the last couple of regular seasons, he’s just been OK. He needs to step it up.”
But our coach sees it differently.
“What would scare me is the pedigree of the leadership in Tampa — and the goalie,” said the coach. “Vasilevskiy on his own could win a series — and it could be the motivator for Tampa because it’s bragging rights in the Sunshine State. I know you have to go through everybody to win the Stanley Cup, but I don’t think Florida wanted to have to go through Tampa in the first round.
“Last year, after going to the Final, the Panthers know how to play in the playoffs. Florida is better than last year. They’re bigger. They’ve got more depth. They’re going to be a tough out. It should be entertaining to watch because the last time they played each other, it was a war. As long as their goalie can keep up with the other one, I think they’ll win.”
Meanwhile, our executive noted this is a “classic” first-round match-up and suggested Florida went 7-0 in overtime last year and “rarely can a team do that two years in a row. Breaks sometimes even out.”
Executive: Tampa in 7
Scout: Florida in 7
Coach: Florida in 6
Consensus: Florida advances
Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
An age-old rivalry renewed, one that features ghosts on both sides. But ghosts don’t play actual games. It’s actually an interesting contrast because Boston is a team that looks better on the ice than it does on paper. It’s hard to get excited about the roster of forwards beyond David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand. In short, the Bruins are a classic case of a team better than the sum of its individual parts. That’s usually a product of coaching and culture.
Toronto is the opposite, a talented team with a lot of really good individual parts — from Auston Matthews and William Nylander to Mitch Marner and John Tavares — with an average defense and question marks in goal. In playoffs past, they’ve seemed less than their individual parts.
“Toronto’s best players — Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander, (Morgan) Rielly — have a history of underperforming in the playoffs,” said our executive. “Until they prove that they can play as well in the playoffs as they do in the regular season, it is hard to feel good about their chances. Boston’s best players — Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy, Marchand and others have had a history of overperforming in the playoffs. If I have to win one playoff game, I would definitely want Pastrnak and Marchand on my team over Matthews and Marner.”
The biggest difference between the teams, according to the executive, is obviously in goal.
“Boston has two really good goalies, and splitting in the playoffs rarely works,” he said. “But both of their goalies are far better than either of Toronto’s goalies.”
While our executive picked Boston as the favorite, our coach and scout are choosing the Maple Leafs to upset them.
“Boston’s goaltending is the strength of their team, and it has masked a lot of weaknesses elsewhere,” said the coach. “I think they have good defense. But once you get past their top few players, they’ve got some good role players, but not to the degree Toronto has. Toronto’s gotten bigger. They got a little more of an edge this year. And they’re sick and tired of their obituary being written every time they play Boston.”
And our scout noted: “It almost looked as if Boston wanted to play Toronto, which can be dangerous. I’m going to pick Toronto. They haven’t beaten them all year — people get fooled by that sometimes. I’m not sure Toronto can go deep because I don’t like their defense, but they have a lot of talent and there’s a little more fire with (Tyler) Bertuzzi, (Max) Domi, (Joel) Edmundson and (Simon) Benoit on the back end.
“Plus, I think it’s good for Toronto to start on the road. I think the pressure will be off. I think they’ll get off to a good start.”
Executive: Boston in 5
Scout: Toronto in 6
Coach: Toronto in 7
Consensus: Toronto advances
While Boston has strength in goal, Toronto has more star power up front featuring Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. (Jeff Curry / USA Today)
New York Rangers vs. Washington Capitals
The Rangers won the Presidents’ Trophy with 114 points. Can a team that finishes with the best overall record in the NHL actually fly under the radar? Our coach thinks so and says they haven’t gotten nearly enough credit for what they’ve accomplished this season — a year in which goaltender Igor Shesterkin underperformed compared to last year and Adam Fox’s impact hasn’t been what it once was but some of the younger organizational products, especially Alexis Lafrenière, took a step forward.
“Their power play has carried them, and if it stays hot, it can blow you right out of the water,” said the coach. “They do have a lot of depth through their four lines. They don’t get a lot of credit for it, but they check pretty well. Their systematic play, when they have the lead, is hard to play against.”
According to our executive, “Washington’s run to the playoffs has been a great story because they were sellers at the deadline and maybe they could be the team of destiny if they weren’t playing against the Rangers. But the Rangers just have too much. Five forwards with 25-plus goals and four forwards with 70-plus points. Their special teams are really good — third on the power play, third in penalty killing. They just don’t have a lot of weaknesses.
“Washington, on the other hand, just kept finding ways to win games. Their head coach, Spencer Carbery, deserves support for the Jack Adams Award. If they have any chance, it’s because of a 31-year-old Charlie Lindgren in goal. He has played parts of six seasons in the American Hockey League. He was signed as a backup. He absolutely led the Capitals into the playoffs. He gave up one goal in the last two games to get his team into the playoffs despite playing under tremendous pressure. He is one of those great stories that comes around once in a while — over Lindgren’s professional career, he has only played 12 playoff games, all in the minors, so being the No. 1 goalie in the playoffs against a powerful team like the Rangers in the Stanley Cup playoffs is a tall task. While it might be fun to pick a massive underdog like Washington, the Rangers are smart enough to know that the best way to win the Stanley Cup is to have a short series along the way, and I think it will be right away.”
And our scout made it unanimous: “Washington won their Stanley by getting into the playoffs. The talent level on those two teams is way different. The only possible way Washington makes it close is if Lindgren steals one or two games — because he’s been really, really good.”
Executive: Rangers in 4
Scout: Rangers in 5
Coach: Rangers in 5
Consensus: Rangers advance
Carolina Hurricanes vs. New York Islanders
This is a first-round rematch from a year ago and, on paper, it looks like a mismatch. Carolina finished 17 points ahead of the Islanders and has been humming along nicely after a rocky start to the season, but the Islanders have been a different team since Patrick Roy replaced Lane Lambert as coach in January. Back then, they were sixth in the Metro, two points out of the final wild card and had lost four games in a row and six out of seven. Under Roy, they finished 20-12-5 and went on a 9-1-1 run.
Semyon Varlamov, the only Islanders’ player who previously played for Roy back when they were together in Colorado, essentially took the starter’s job away from Ilya Sorokin and has been one of the hottest goalies in the league down the stretch. Roy has a swagger about him and some of his personality seems to have rubbed off on the Islanders who, for years, have been thought of as an efficient but stodgy team.
The problem for the Islanders is Carolina’s been good too — 8-2 in their last 10, winners of five in a row before their meaningless finale. Jake Guentzel, acquired at the deadline to add scoring depth, has done just that, and it’s addressed the main issue Carolina has had for years in the playoffs — finding enough offense to win the close games.
“I don’t know if they have the speed to match Carolina,” said our coach. “As they go deeper, I worry about Carolina because playing that high-octane hockey is tough to do, for four rounds, if they don’t get a lot of rest in between. But in the first round, they’re fine. Their goaltending — Freddie Andersen or Pyotr Kochetkov — is going to be interesting to see who plays.”
Our scout ventured: “I’m going to pick Carolina to win but I think they’re going to have their hands full. The Islanders have been playing playoff hockey here for three or four weeks now. Their defense finally seems to be healthy, though I don’t know how Noah Dobson is. He’s key. They haven’t had a full defense until recently — and then he got hurt. I don’t like their chances without him. He’s so good on the power play and he’s a playoff defenseman. He’s rangy, 6-foot-3, right shot. That’s going to be a big part of it for me. The Islanders have a veteran team and they know it’s going to be one of their last kicks at the cat. I think they’ll give them a real good run, but in the end, I’ll take Carolina.”
Our executive made it unanimous and also stressed how Dobson’s health and form would be critical to any success the Islanders might have. “Dobson has developed into being a true No. 1 defenseman and he is impossible to replace against a team with as many talented forwards as Carolina has. The Islanders will make a strong push, but Carolina just has too many weapons.”
Executive: Carolina in 6
Coach: Carolina in six
Scout: Carolina in 7
The consensus: Carolina advances
Western Conference
Winnipeg Jets vs. Colorado Avalanche
Officially, Colorado will go in as the slight underdog after Winnipeg seized home-ice advantage by rattling off eight wins in a row to finish off the season and emerge from a March lapse. Meanwhile, the Avalanche stumbled down the stretch and of particular concern was the work of goaltender Alexandar Georgiev who, on the one hand, is the NHL leader in victories (38) but, on the other, is 34th in goals-against average (3.02) and tied for 38th in save percentage (.897) with Elvis Merzlikins and Karel Vejmelka.
The matchup in goal heavily tilts to Winnipeg: Connor Hellebuyck is the odds-on favorite to win the Vezina Trophy as the NHL’s top goaltender and has been razor-sharp of late. Hellebuyck is just so efficient in goal — the opposite, in other words, of Georgiev, who can run hot and cold. And if he runs cold, Colorado doesn’t have a good second option the way Winnipeg does with Laurent Brossoit, one of the best backups in the league.
On the other side of the ledger, Colorado has a Hart Trophy candidate in Nathan MacKinnon and a Norris Trophy candidate in Cale Makar and made a handful of moves at the deadline — notably adding Sean Walker on defense and Casey Mittelstadt up front — to add depth. Colorado was upset in the opening round a year ago, primarily because Seattle’s 1-12 depth trumped the Avalanche’s star power up front, which falls off a cliff once you get past the first three or four forwards.
Two keys: Mikko Rantanen, MacKinnon’s right-hand man, is just back from injury; and Valeri Nichushkin, who was absent for a time in the NHL’s player assistance program, but at times, has been a formidable top-six beast.
Winnipeg made a good early addition via trade: Sean Monahan, who has resurrected his career after multiple surgeries.
“Winnipeg is sneaky deep,” said the coach. “Their four lines are good. Can Adam Lowry shut down MacKinnon? This is where home ice could work to Winnipeg’s advantage, because with last change, Bones (Winnipeg coach Rick Bowness) can get that matchup of Lowry against MacKinnon if he likes. I haven’t liked Colorado much down the stretch, but I still think they’re going to find a way to win.”
Our executive noted: “This is a battle between a great offensive team and a great defensive team, which makes this series a tossup. Colorado finished the season with the second-highest goal-scoring total in the league, while Winnipeg gave up the fewest goals in the league. The problem with Colorado is that their overall defensive corps and their goaltending is average.”
Our scout also chose Winnipeg, noting: “It’s going to be a super tight series, but I’m picking Winnipeg. Georgiev has been overworked and he hasn’t been that great when he has been in there. The Avs are top heavy, with really good players in Mackinnon, Makar and Rantanen, but through four lines, I think Winnipeg has more depth, better goaltending and home ice.”
Executive: Winnipeg in 6
Coach: Colorado in 7
Scout: Winnipeg in 7
Consensus: Winnipeg advances
Connor Hellebuyck (left) is the Vezina Trophy favorite while Laurent Brossoit (right) is one of the best backups in the league. (Isaiah J. Downing / USA Today)
Vancouver Canucks vs. Nashville Predators
Normally, the last week of a season in which a team comfortably makes the playoffs as Vancouver did this year is about staying healthy. The final games mean little. But in Vancouver’s case, it gave goaltender Thatcher Demko a chance to shake the rush off after missing 14 games with a knee injury.
With Demko, before the injury, Vancouver was 34-13-2. In the next 31 games without him, they won only 15 times (15-9-7). Vancouver has the probable Norris winner in Quinn Hughes and two dynamic forwards in J.T. Miller and Elias Pettersson, but when it comes down to it, Demko could be the team’s MVP. If Tuesday’s excellent outing against Calgary is any indication, Demko isn’t going to miss a beat.
Nashville isn’t shabby in goal either — Juuse Saros, when on his game, can steal a game. On defense, Roman Josi will get another top-three Norris finish as well. Nashville’s top line, featuring Filip Forsberg, Ryan O’Reilly and Gustav Nyquist, has been excellent, but it falls off considerably after them. Vancouver, meanwhile, has the greater depth.
Our scout is picking Nashville, in part because he suggested: “Every year, there are two or three underdogs that win in the first round, so you’ve got to try and figure out who you think those are — I think it could be Nashville. Vancouver got off to such a great start, then kinda coasted. I’m not sure they’re going to be able to turn it up again against a team that’s been playing really well and clicking on all cylinders the last two months. With Demko, sometimes the adrenaline carries you, first game back. I don’t know if he’ll be as sharp as he needs to be.”
Despite the fact the Predators are top heavy, our coach also gives them a chance.
“They’ve got good size,” he said. “That one line is scary good, along with Josi. Tommy Novak silently, you watch him, he reminds me a little of a young Sean Monahan. He’s pretty slick. He’s a bigger body. He doesn’t play a physical game, but he makes plays and he’s got good touch around the net. (Colton) Sissons is a good player. (Luke) Schenn on their back end helps. They’re bigger than they’re given credit for. They’ve had to play themselves into where they are. It wasn’t like they fell into it. I’m a big Josi fan. Every time they talk about some of these other guys — Hughes, Makar — Roman Josi has 22 goals. He drives the bus. I’ve always been a fan. This guy doesn’t get enough credit. He doesn’t get a lot of fanfare. You put him on a really good team? People would notice.”
Our executive went the other way, however, praising Vancouver’s 1-to-12 depth up front.
“Their big three — J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson and Brock Boeser — combined for 111 goals and 263 points. If Elias Lindholm plays the way Vancouver was expecting he would after acquiring him from Calgary, this would add another offensive forward to this group. But what I really like is how Nils Hoglander, Dakota Joshua and Conor Garland played so well at even strength, which can often make the difference in close games.”
He also added a cautionary, big-picture take, noting that: “The one thing that might not get talked about is that if this series goes the distance, the winner of the series will have flown more miles than some Eastern Conference teams will fly over four rounds, and while that might not be a big deal in this series, it could come back to hurt the winning team later in the playoffs. Overall, this is going to be a tough series for both teams and it might come down to which team can handle the travel best. Still, it appears to be Vancouver’s season.”
Executive: Vancouver in 7
Coach: Nashville in 7
Scout: Nashville in 6
Consensus: Nashville advances
Edmonton Oilers vs. Los Angeles Kings
The Oilers needed seven games to defeat the Kings two years ago, and six games a year ago. But the gap between the two clubs appears to have widened, not narrowed, in the past eight months. Edmonton has gotten better. Los Angeles has gotten worse. The Kings started the year well, slipped badly, fired the coach (Todd McLellan), tried to play a more up-tempo style under the new coach (Jim Hiller), saw that didn’t work and are now back to playing a grinding 1-3-1 style that suits their personnel.
Anze Kopitar remains a star, annually in the Selke conversation; Adrian Kempe hasn’t been as productive; Viktor Arvidsson has provided a spark since returning from back surgery; and PL Dubois can salvage an underachieving regular season by cranking up his performance the way he once did with Columbus back in the day. Drew Doughty isn’t what he once was, but he’s had a good year, and Cam Talbot has been good early and late after an average middle of the season. Talbot gets the chance to face his former team, the Oilers, featuring, you know, Connor McDavid and his sidekick Leon Draisaitl.
“This shapes up as an interesting series even if L.A. does not have the offensive firepower that Edmonton has, as both teams made coaching changes during the season and both teams responded well to their new coaches,” said our executive, who praised the Kings’ two long-time stalwarts, Kopitar and Doughty, for “great seasons that didn’t attract a lot of outside notice.”
But it was also hard for him to pick against the Oilers, for obvious reasons: “The dynamic duo of McDavid and Draisaitl. McDavid had another remarkable season, but this year those two had a third star with Zach Hyman scoring 54 goals. It is almost impossible to stop those three if they play together, especially since McDavid is playing exceptionally well.”
Our scout agreed: “McDavid is going to be on a mission. This is their year. L.A. hasn’t progressed. I didn’t think they showed the improvement everybody thought they would. They feel stuck in neutral.”
And our coach thought Edmonton’s forecheck would win the day: “The Kings just are not built this year to withstand their physicality.”
Executive: Edmonton in 6
Coach: Edmonton in 5
Scout: Edmonton in 6
Consensus: Edmonton advances
Connor McDavid looks to make a pass in front of Los Angeles Kings defenseman Drew Doughty. (Perry Nelson / USA Today)
Dallas Stars vs. Vegas Golden Knights
Is Dallas the NHL’s quietest good team? Maybe. Only Jason Robertson crossed the 70-point threshold — he had 80 points, good for a tie for 27th. The next highest is Joe Pavelski at 67, which doesn’t crack the top 75. Their strength is depth — six players at 60 points or more. Defensively, they are led by Miro Heiskanen, and they made one of the better moves at the deadline to get defenseman Chris Tanev and his warrior style of defending from Calgary.
The Golden Knights, meanwhile, are the defending Stanley Cup champions and banking on last year’s run. Can they turn it around, after all the injuries and the uneven play down the stretch? Maybe. Though Adin Hill helped the Golden Knights win last year, the edge in goal goes to Dallas, even if Jake Oettinger hasn’t been as sharp as he was a year ago. On paper, nothing about Dallas is particularly sexy. In some ways, they’re the Boston of the East — they just win, baby.
The issue with Vegas: So many key players who’ve been injured this year are back or close to returning, but it’s one thing to be a medically cleared body in the lineup and another to be a contributing player to a winning cause. Can Vegas’ MASH unit get up to speed? In theory, if the Golden Knights can survive Round 1, they can get stronger as the playoffs progress. The problem is Round 1 features an opponent that won the West and has arguably the best depth of any playoff team in the conference.
“I cannot think that either team wanted to play the other in the first round,” said our executive. “This guarantees that one of the premier Stanley Cup contenders will go out in the first round, which is too bad. Dallas is almost a machine right now. They have eight forwards who scored between 21-32 goals and 52-80 points, which means that every line that Dallas puts on the ice will probably have at least one 20-plus-goal scorer and one 50-point scorer. Those are numbers that make it very hard to be stopped.”
The goaltending matchup favors Dallas as well.
“I like Hill, but Vegas cannot possibly get the same quality of goaltending they got last year,” said our scout. “Vegas isn’t going to be taking anything for granted, but I just don’t think they can get up to speed fast enough against a team as deep as Dallas.”
Our coach noted that Vegas needs to come up with a game plan to negate the Stars’ speed and rush game. “If they can, they can give them a run.”
And a final thought from our executive: “I think this will be a great series, but I believe that the young stars of Dallas, especially Miro Heiskanen and Wyatt Johnston, will end up being the difference-makers, so I will pick Dallas.”
Executive: Dallas in 7
Coach: Dallas in 7
Scout: Dallas in 6
Consensus: Dallas advances
(Top photo of Auston Matthews and Hampus Lindholm: Dan Hamilton / USA Today)
