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This weekend may mark a new chapter for the Shanghai International Circuit, but it’s business as usual for Formula One.
Fresh off of a sprint race victory, Max Verstappen secured his sixth consecutive pole position (and Red Bull’s 100th overall) by three-tenths of a second as Sergio Pérez completed a front-row lockout for the team.
Fernando Alonso and Lando Norris are set to start behind the Red Bulls on the second row as the close battle to be ‘best of the rest’ continues. From Alonso in P3 to Carlos Sainz in P7, five drivers were covered by just 0.149 seconds while all 10 Q3 drivers were separated by just over a second.
Qualifying also brought about a couple of firsts for the year. Both Alpine drivers made it to Q2, and Sauber’s Valtteri Bottas is set to start in the top 10 for Sunday’s grand prix. But it wasn’t a positive outing for everyone. Lewis Hamilton may have finished second in Saturday’s sprint race, but he was knocked out in Q1 and will start Sunday’s grand prix in P18. Logan Sargeant’s rut continues as he spun in Q1 and will line up last for the second time this weekend.
But over an hour after qualifying finished, Aston Martin lodged a protest over the results, citing Article 39.6 of the sporting regulations, which states: “Any driver whose car stops on the track during the qualifying session or the sprint shootout will not be permitted to take any further part in that session.” This is in relation to Sainz’s Q2 crash, which triggered a red flag that appeared to end his session, but Ferrari repaired his car quickly enough for the Spaniard to get back out and reach Q3.
As F1 prepares for its first Chinese Grand Prix since 2019, which will be lights out at 3 a.m. EDT/8 a.m. BST, here are the biggest storylines we’re keeping an eye on.
Here’s how they line up for Sunday’s race 👀#F1 #ChineseGP pic.twitter.com/MLvZnfZyLC
— Formula 1 (@F1) April 20, 2024
Is Max Verstappen’s sprint domination a Sunday spoiler?
One of Verstappen’s biggest criticisms of F1’s sprint race format has been that it can spoil the grand prix by giving away what may happen, removing the unknowns over strategy and race pace. In China, it might have given away just how great his domination could be.
Verstappen recovered from starting fourth and some early battery mode issues to lead the sprint by Lap 9 of 19, before pulling out 13 seconds in the following 10 laps on Hamilton in second place. Nobody really stood a chance.
The new weekend format parc ferme rules mean setup changes can be made between the sprint and qualifying, giving the rest of the pack a chance to make some inroads on the Red Bull. But there was zero sign of anyone making up any time come qualifying as Verstappen led Pérez to a 1-2 finish. Third-placed Alonso was almost half a second off Verstappen. As Norris put it to Sky Sports: “The Red Bull is clearly in a different league this weekend.”
Compared to where he was on Saturday in Japan two weeks ago, Verstappen is in a far stronger, more confident place with the RB20. He said the car only improved through qualifying, building on his strong showing in the sprint. Even the changing wind and the question marks that came with racing in China for the first time in five years, particularly the track surface, couldn’t destabilize him.
“If the car is even half as good as what it was in the sprint, I think we’ll be alright,” Verstappen said. A worrying sign for the competition.
Pérez’s run to second only underlined Red Bull’s advantage in China as it reached 100 poles at the track where Sebastian Vettel scored its first back in 2009. Team principal Christian Horner admitted the team was “lucky” not to lose Pérez in Q1 after traffic and a used set of tires meant the Mexican only made it through in 15th, and some front wing adjustments worked against him.
These were resolved in time for Q3 so Pérez could reach the front row. He said after qualifying there was “everything to play for tomorrow.” But if Verstappen’s weekend so far is anything to go by, it’ll very much be about consolidating second.
Updated championship tables following #F1Sprint in Shanghai 👀#F1 #ChineseGP pic.twitter.com/4Z30NOXu6Q
— Formula 1 (@F1) April 20, 2024
‘Out of position’ Alonso braces for another fight
Alonso talked up his Japanese Grand Prix weekend as one of the top five of his F1 career, believing his sixth-place finish was far more than Aston Martin had the pace to achieve. Based on that, China would so far surely be in the same kind of territory.
He qualified well on Friday and was in the podium fight in the sprint, only for contact with Sainz to result in a puncture that forced Alonso to retire. The subsequent penalty for causing the collision was harsh, but Alonso said later he had to “accept it and move on.”
It didn’t shake Alonso heading into qualifying. He almost abandoned his final Q3 lap after nearly losing his car through Turns 1 and 2, costing him a couple of a tenths. The rest of the lap more than made up for it, lifting Alonso to third on the grid behind the Red Bulls — even surprising Aston Martin, which never tires of these kinds of magic moments.
Even from third and off the back of his solid sprint race pace, Alonso is still doubtful of achieving too much on Sunday. “It doesn’t change much to be P2 or P3, we are completely out of position for tomorrow,” he said, believing Aston Martin was slower than Ferrari, McLaren and Mercedes. “Whatever position we are, I think seventh, eighth, ninth is our natural order tomorrow when we see the checkered flag.”
On the basis of Alonso’s weekend so far, seventh would seem like a poor return. Ferrari clearly hasn’t been entirely comfortable this weekend despite the perceived advantage it would have in the long Shanghai corners, while McLaren’s pace has been something of a surprise. Mercedes looks completely out of the picture to bother the top five, especially with Hamilton so far back.
It should give Alonso confidence that a podium might be possible, as skeptical as he may be — or at least skeptical enough that such a result could be heralded as something remarkable yet again.
Ferrari and McLaren are in the thick of the ‘best of the rest’ fight. (Lintao Zhang/Getty Images)
McLaren v. Ferrari
Coming into qualifying on Saturday afternoon, it was evident that the battle would be tight between McLaren and Ferrari (and that Alonso would be in the mix as well). But the Ferraris qualifying sixth and seventh behind the Aston Martin driver and both McLarens was unexpected.
“It’s close with Fernando,” Norris told Sky Sports afterwards. “Sometimes you’re two-hundredths ahead, sometimes two-hundredths behind. So not a lot more I can ask. The Red Bull is clearly in a different league this weekend, both in quali pace and race pace. I’m happy with today. It was still a good day.
“Of course, would I have loved to be ahead of Fernando? Yes. Is there two-hundredths in the car? Yes. But it is what it is.”
In the end, both Norris and Oscar Piastri majorly improved their lap times between Q2 and Q3, shaving off a few tenths of a second each, while Charles Leclerc and Sainz made marginal gains. “As a team, we were expecting more for sure. We were lacking a bit of performance for some reason,” Leclerc told Sky Sports. “However, on my side, I knew the setup I had chosen was not ideal for today, but I did not expect to be behind Aston and McLaren.”
The big question, though, is race pace. Norris said no big changes were made to the car setup for the race and that McLaren already is “getting a lot out of the car.” He added, “There’s not a lot we can improve on the car. Little tweaks here and there, millimeters here and there. But not a lot more.” That being said, when looking back at the sprint race, Norris felt “our race pace was not great, DRS was saving me a lot.”
Meanwhile, Leclerc feels he has “the right car to perform,” but it’ll come down to the passing game. A DRS train could form, and with 56 laps, it’ll be a waiting game of finding the right opportunity on a track that does allow for overtaking. Sainz said to Sky Sports, “Clearly over one lap, these three cars ahead of us were quicker, there was nothing we could have done to beat them. Now it’s a matter if over 50-something laps we can show a better race pace and get in front of them, which will not be easy.”
Lewis Hamilton’s optimism proves short-lived
Just when Hamilton was back reveling in the feeling of leading a race once again, even if it was only nine laps in the sprint before Verstappen bumped him to a second-place finish, qualifying in China brought him back down to earth with an almighty bump.
Hamilton spoke about his plan to make some setup changes between the sprint and qualifying in a bid to unlock more performance in dry conditions. These “massive changes” continued the ongoing experiments Hamilton keeps saying Mercedes is doing this year to understand the frailties of the W15 — and contributed to his shock Q1 exit in a lowly 18th.
A lock-up at the hairpin on his final Q1 lap was the real killer for Hamilton, who told Sky Sports after the session the car “wasn’t too bad in some places.” Yet the underlying struggles remained. “Eighteenth is pretty bad,” he said. “When I was making the setup changes, I was like, ‘It can’t get any worse, surely,’ and it did! S— happens.”
The gulf between the two ‘tiers’ of teams in F1’s pecking order this year means snaring some points should remain a target for Hamilton, though the bigger benefit for Mercedes at this point will be another race distance of data and understanding of the car, particularly with these ongoing setup experiments.
The team’s best hope of a decent score lies with George Russell, although he will only start eighth on the grid. Russell dropped out in the second stage of sprint qualifying on Friday and rarely bothered the front-runners through qualifying for the GP, though he was within three-tenths of Alonso up in third. It’s given him hope of getting in the fight for the top five. “The Ferrari’s a little bit ahead of us,” he said. “I think the fight is with McLaren and Fernando.”
What’s possible for Valtteri Bottas and Nico Hülkenberg?
A top-10 starting position for back-of-the-pack teams is rare considering how far ahead the top five teams are at the moment. For the first time this season, Bottas advanced to Q3 and will line up 10th for Sunday’s grand prix.
It’s been a rough go lately for Sauber, who is ninth in the constructor standings with zero points to their name. One of the biggest issues that have plagued them this season is pit stops. Team representative Alessandro Alunni Bravi explained in Australia, “We redesigned all the components from the hub, nuts, everything, in order to improve our pit stop, and we changed also the equipment. So we found that there is an issue with the design of a part, and we are redesigning the part, but of course, this takes time also for the production and everything.”
Valtteri Bottas reached Q3 for the first time this year. (HECTOR RETAMAL/AFP via Getty Images)
Alunni Bravi said in China that the team is still working on fixing the issues, and did not give a timeline. “We have other mitigation measures here that should allow us to be more consistent,” he said. “And then of course the target is also to reduce the pit stop time, but I think that the main target is to not have any problem.”
The Chinese Grand Prix will be the best chance for Bottas to score points so far this year, but it’ll require consistency across the team, including with pit stops. He said to Sky Sports, “But for (points), we need to execute everything in perfection, and that’s what I am expecting from every team member.”
Hülkenberg is starting a spot ahead of Bottas and expects “a tough race” on Sunday. The Haas driver struggled during the sprint race, starting P13 but finished P19. After a few laps, he began suffering from tire degradation and fell backwards, driving in other cars’ dirty air. Hülkenberg said in the team’s recap, “Maybe we did a wrong turn on the set-up after yesterday going from FP1 into Sprint quali. We intended to make the car better, but it reacted in a strange and different way to what we expected in the Sprint.”
But the issues seemed to be remedied come qualifying for the grand prix on Saturday afternoon. Haas currently trails RB by three points in the constructor standings, and while this is only the fifth race weekend of the year, these points opportunities are rare — and every bit counts.
(Lead image of Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen: Andres Martinez Casares / POOL / AFP, Peter Fox via Getty Images)
