Mitoma and March’s absence has hit Brighton hard – it’s why they are draw specialists

Roberto De Zerbi is having sleepless nights as a result of Brighton & Hove Albion becoming the draw specialists of the Premier League.

The head coach said after last Saturday’s 1-1 stalemate at Burnley: “During the night when I can’t sleep, I study the table. We are in fifth position in goals conceded, seventh or eighth in goals scored. But we are the team with the most draws.”

This is not entirely accurate, although the gist of De Zerbi’s observation justifies head-scratching. His side, 10th in the actual table, climb to eighth based on goals conceded (50 in 32 games). That is only one more than the number of goals let in by Aston Villa (fourth) and Tottenham (fifth).

Brighton are joint eighth on goals scored with eighth-placed West Ham, who have played a game more. The puzzling aspect is the 11 draws for De Zerbi’s team, which is at least two more than anyone else in the division — the adventurous Italian is not the type of coach to settle for a point. Take the 0-0 draw away to Brentford this month.

The last of four second-half substitutions made by De Zerbi after 86 minutes was attacking midfielder Jakub Moder for Joel Veltman, the defender. De Zerbi binned the plan to withdraw Joao Pedro on the 19-goal top scorer’s return from nine matches out with a hamstring injury, keeping the leading scorer on the pitch in search of a late winner.

Last season, Brighton only had eight draws when they finished sixth to qualify for the Europa League. Eight clubs had more draws than that. Turning three of the draws this season into wins would put De Zerbi’s side level on points with sixth-placed Newcastle. So, what has changed?

The graphic below is revealing. It outlines Brighton’s 10-game rolling expected goals (xG) for and against to visualise their volume of chances created and conceded since 2020-21.

Rather than a large number of draws being down to poor luck in certain games, the underlying numbers reflect performances being about the same in both boxes.

That was noticeable last season, when they were notably creating more than they were conceding (blue shaded area), particularly in the latter part of the campaign.

This season, the lines have converged to almost overlap each other. Across a rolling average, they are conceding almost as many chances as they are creating.

The team sheet for the first league draw of the season, 2-2 against Liverpool at the Amex Stadium in October, provides a telling clue to the shift identified in the chart above. Solly March and Kaoru Mitoma were in the starting line-up. The versatile March filled in at left-back, but he has usually been on the right wing under De Zerbi, with Mitoma on the left.

Long-serving March was in the form of his life after De Zerbi succeeded Chelsea-bound Graham Potter in September 2022. He made 14 goal contributions (seven goals plus seven assists) in the first 19 league games that followed the Italian’s appointment.

In the game after the Liverpool draw, March landed awkwardly towards the end of the 2-1 defeat against Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium. The 29-year-old has needed separate knee operations to repair meniscus cartilage damage and a ruptured anterior cruciate ligament that ruled him out for the rest of the season. He has been a massive miss.

Can one player make such a big difference?

Not in isolation. The problem for De Zerbi is that he has been without Mitoma for large chunks of the campaign, too. He missed seven games between December and February due to an ankle injury and international duty for Japan in the Asian Cup.

That period included two of the league draws, at home to Wolverhampton Wanderers (0-0) and away to West Ham United (0-0). Having returned for two matches, Mitoma was then ruled out in late February for the rest of the season by a back injury.

He made his last appearance in the 5-0 win at Sheffield United. Mitoma and two-goal Simon Adingra — March’s replacement on the right — caused havoc.

It is no coincidence that the goals have dried up since — with Brighton scoring just four across seven league games. Three more of the draws have occurred during this period, at home to Everton (1-1), at Brentford (0-0), and at Burnley (1-1).

In the seven matches March and Mitoma played together at the beginning of the season, they scored four goals between them and provided three assists in total (Mitoma also scored twice in the 3-1 home win against Bournemouth when March was an unused substitute). De Zerbi’s team hit the target 16 times across those seven games, an average of nearly 2.3 goals per game compared to the average overall of 1.63 goals per game.

Estupinan has struggled to return to his best form (Charlotte Wilson/Offside/Offside via Getty Images)

Two of the four matches in which the biggest chances were created fell into this section (six in the 4-1 home win against Luton Town and five in the 4-1 victory at Wolves).

Brighton are a much more threatening team with March on one flank and Mitoma on the other. “It’s different playing without Mitoma and March,” De Zerbi said. “We have a lot of young attackers, very good players, they can become great players like Mitoma and March. We are paying a big price because we are not scoring the goals we need.”

Broken partnership

Mitoma forged an effective understanding with attack-minded Ecuador left-back Pervis Estupinan last season. A repeat of that was wrecked this season when Estupinan sustained a muscle injury that ruled him out for 15 matches from September to December (including six of the league draws).

De Zerbi used March, Tariq Lamptey, Igor Julio and James Milner — who has been injured since January — to plug the gap. None of those alternatives possesses Estupinan’s mix of athleticism, power and stamina.

Estupinan has not hit the same heights since that long-term injury and De Zerbi could be without him again after he was forced off in the 13th minute at Burnley after twisting his left ankle.

Nothing going right

The difficulties for De Zerbi at left-back have been mirrored at right-back. It has been a stop-start campaign for Lamptey.

The Ghana international missed five league games — including three of those draws — between October and November with a muscle injury. He went off in his first match back, the 3-2 win away to Nottingham Forest in November.

That led to an absence of another seven league fixtures, a sequence that contained another three of those draws. Lamptey’s availability was compounded when 18-year-old Jack Hinshelwood, having performed with promise at right-back or right wing-back, was ruled out in February for the rest of the season due to a stress fracture of the foot.

Teenager Hinshelwood impressed before injury (Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)

Tactical tweaks

Being without first-choice wingers and full-backs for long periods has caused De Zerbi to adjust his preferred 4-2-3-1 formation. He has played with a back three far more often.

Igor is built like a central defender, which is his main position. Although the Brazilian summer signing from Fiorentina has done well when deputising at left-back, he is not designed to make the type of forward and overlapping runs which are part of Estupinan or March’s armoury.

The same is true on the right of Veltman. The 32-year-old was primarily a central defender at Ajax and for the Netherlands before signing in 2020. He is dependable in defensive situations without possessing the pace and energy of Lamptey or Hinshelwood to be an attacking outlet.

“Last season, our style was four attackers but two (attacking) full-backs,” De Zerbi says. “This season, we had to change tactically, playing a lot of times with three at the back because we’ve had a lot of problems.”

There have been width complications higher up the pitch for De Zerbi as well, rooted in the absences of March and Mitoma. Lamptey returned from two months out in the 0-0 home draw with Wolves in January off the bench as a right-winger.

De Zerbi has been forced to compensate for the lack of natural wide options by operating with a narrow triangle at the sharp end, two of the forwards tucking in centrally behind one more advanced.

Of all the injuries De Zerbi has been dealing with this season, (10 players are sidelined), coping without March, Mitoma, Estupinan and Lamptey has been the biggest headache.

The head coach has not been able to field more than two of the quartet in any of the 11 league draws. Significantly, the last time they all started a league game together was in March last season — a 4-0 thrashing of West Ham at the Amex on the way to securing European qualification.

(Top photos: Getty Images)