Every week during the season and periodically during the offseason, our AFC North writers gather for a discussion on key topics, important names and hypothetical arguments designed to dissect what’s happening and predict what might happen next in what has been the NFL’s most competitive division. Here’s our pre-draft edition of the AFC North Whiparound.
What’s one word you’d use to describe the offseason for the team you cover? Why did you choose that word?
Jeff Zrebiec (Ravens): Predictable. You could certainly use a stronger and harsher word to sum up all the departures from their roster and coaching staff, but the Ravens lose a significant number of players and coaches most offseasons and bounce back just fine. They re-signed a handful of their own players, with Justin Madubuike being the most significant move. They made the one notable foray on the free-agent market to sign Derrick Henry and then supplemented it with mostly depth/special teams pieces. They lost several key players from last year’s 13-4 team and are again counting on the draft to fill roster holes. It had all the characteristics of a normal Ravens offseason. Anybody surprised with what they have or haven’t done hasn’t been paying much attention to how the Baltimore front office goes about its business this time of year.
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Zac Jackson (Browns): Uncomfortable. Deshaun Watson is rehabbing from major shoulder surgery, and his target for a full return is more late summer than late spring. Nick Chubb took a pay cut because he’s coming off two knee surgeries, and there’s no clear timetable for his return. The Browns spent the offseason keeping their team together, and they have a roster that’s talented and experienced. But Watson represents the team’s ceiling, and if he’s not healthy and consistently good, the Browns aren’t getting back to the playoffs. Last year showed that Cleveland is talented, but it got older in free agency and is trying to keep up in a loaded AFC.
Mark Kaboly (Steelers): Unforeseen (yeah, I had to look up that word to make sure). If you had the Steelers adding both Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, trading Kenny Pickett and Diontae Johnson, and signing Patrick Queen, you deserve a cookie. The crazy thing about it all is the Steelers are sure to have at least one more “unforeseen” move in their offseason with a glaring need at wide receiver, so stay tuned on that front. But the offseason story has to be the revamping of the quarterback room. Pickett, Mitch Trubisky and Mason Rudolph are out. Wilson, Fields and Kyle Allen are in, with the new additions counting only $5.6 million against the cap.
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Paul Dehner Jr. (Bengals): Steady. After a few years full of flash and headlines, this offseason involved a steady hand of calculated but not spectacular moves. There was no freak-out from the disappointment of 2023, not that you would expect one from arguably the most patient front office in the NFL. They continued executing the plan of avoiding liabilities up front (Trent Brown), paying what they had to for more interior disruption (Sheldon Rankins), fixing the problem of explosive plays (Geno Stone, Vonn Bell) and staying young (D.J. Reader, Chidobe Awuzie, Tyler Boyd all gone). A lot happened, but nothing crazy. Even the Tee Higgins franchise tag-trade request has felt ho-hum as Higgins himself is resigned to the fact he’ll probably be back playing on the tag in 2024.
By now, the needs of each team have been well documented heading into this draft. What will be the hardest hole for your team to fill next week, and what will be the easiest?
Zrebiec: With this year’s offensive line class being billed as one of the best and deepest in recent memory, the Ravens shouldn’t have much trouble getting two plug-and-play offensive linemen in this draft. That likely means taking an offensive tackle with either their first or second pick and then finding a guard late on Day 2 or early on Day 3. The downside of going offensive line-heavy early, though, is that it pushes other needs to later in the draft. The Ravens will have opportunities to add running back and wide receiver help. The biggest challenge for general manager Eric DeCosta might be finding a starting-caliber cornerback in this draft. It’s not a particularly deep cornerback class, and if the Ravens don’t get one early, it’s going to be hard to find a good one later. They have taken quite a few corners on Day 3 of the draft in recent years and haven’t gotten a whole lot of production out of most of them.
Jackson: With no pick until the back half of the second round and only two in the top 150, the Browns have to let the draft come to them — and think more about the future than immediate contributions. The latter part is fine given the state of the current roster, which doesn’t have many holes. The Browns need young legs on the defensive line, more talented pass catchers and need to address the future of their offensive line, too. If they had a first-round pick, it would be easier to list realistic fixes for those needs.
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Kaboly: The Steelers need a center and an experienced receiver behind George Pickens. Even though they basically have nothing at center right now after releasing two-year starter Mason Cole, a legitimate No. 2 receiver is nowhere in sight. They aren’t going to use a first-round pick on a receiver, and the free-agent market is pretty much dried up. A trade is always a possibility when general manager Omar Khan is involved. Whichever direction they go, they need to add somebody other than Calvin Austin III, Quez Watkins, Van Jefferson and Marquez Callaway.
Dehner: The hardest hole to fill will be defensive tackle. The Bengals let Reader walk and didn’t find a run-stopping force to replace him. They were run all over in the North last year, and this draft offers few answers, especially in the early rounds. That will be a chore. The easiest hole to fill will be the slot receiver position. They’ve yet to replace Boyd and need to bring in competition to push or replace Charlie Jones. There are approximately 42,854 receivers with Day 2 grades and the ability to play in the slot.
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Give me the best- and worst-case scenarios when your team is on the clock with their first pick.
Zrebiec: The best case is for the Ravens to be on the clock at No. 30 and to have a choice between one of the better offensive tackle prospects, such as Oklahoma’s Tyler Guyton or Georgia’s Amarius Mims, and one of the better cornerback prospects, such as Clemson’s Nate Wiggins or Alabama’s Kool-Aid McKinstry. The worst case is for all those guys to be gone, DeCosta’s phone not ringing with offers from teams wanting to move up and the Ravens forced to draft a player at 30 that they did not have a first-round grade on.
Jackson: The best-case scenario is easy. The Browns, who hold pick No. 54, get to something close to pick No. 50 with three or four players they like and multiple positions they’re willing to address. Then comes the second part: a potential trade partner who wants to move up and could offer the Browns something like a fourth-round pick — which they don’t currently have — for a deal that could allow them to move down several spots and still add a good player at a premium position. The same applies to pick No. 85 in the third. The Browns just want options, and they’d like to maximize those options when they look at players who might still be a year away from being NFL contributors. Worst case for the Browns is that all the best defensive tackles and wide receivers are gone.
Kaboly: The best-case scenario would be an offensive tackle like JC Latham or Troy Fautanu dropping down the board. I don’t think there is a worst-case scenario. There are enough tackles and centers in the first round, and that pretty much ensures they get somebody they need and want. Maybe if there’s a crazy run on linemen and it leaves a cornerback out there for them to draft like Wiggins, but that wouldn’t be ideal. They would likely trade back if that happens, even if a cornerback is a big need.
Troy Fautanu is the top-ranked guard in our NFL Draft guide, “The Beast.” (Stephen R. Sylvanie / USA Today)
Dehner: The best-case scenario would be (at least) four quarterbacks, multiple cornerbacks, a surprise receiver and a couple of edge rushers come off in front of them, leaving at least one of Latham, Taliese Fuaga, Fautanu or Byron Murphy II to pick. They are the ideal combination of talent, high floor and need at the realistic top of the Bengals’ board. The worst-case scenario involves a run on the tackles and Murphy, leaving a collection of corners and edge rushers to parse through. Then it might be time to work the phones and move back.
Make one draft-related prediction for your team. The spicier, the better.
Zrebiec: The Ravens’ drafting decisions are rarely spicy, so my prediction won’t be either. They will trade out of the first round. They’ll find a team that is picking within the first eight or 10 selections of the second round and wants to get back in the first, and the Ravens will make a deal that nets them early second- and third-round picks. That will set up a pivotal Day 2 of the draft. Spicier? How about the Ravens picking a running back on Day 2?
Jackson: There’s no spice, no sizzle and little buzz for a team that hasn’t had a first-round pick since 2021 and has traded out of the second round in each of the last two years. Folks in Cleveland are excited about the Browns, and they should be, but it would be hard to expect them to be excited about this draft short of some guarantee that Cleveland will select Ohio State players. My prediction is that general manager Andrew Berry trades down, again, and ends up making three trades through the draft as the Browns make selective adds, try to add a fourth-round pick and also try to add an additional pick for next year.
Kaboly: I can make it really spicy, especially in this space. The Steelers trade a draft pick to acquire Higgins from the Bengals. You said spicy, not something that no way will happen on both ends. As I noted earlier, the Steelers need a receiver and Khan likes to make trades (he’s made nine since becoming the Steelers’ GM 23 months ago). So how about making a draft-day trade for Brandon Aiyuk or maybe even Chris Godwin? That’s like 2.2 million Scoville units spicy there.
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Dehner: You want spice? What’s spicier than offensive line takes? It’s not far-fetched to see the Bengals walking away with two offensive linemen in their first four picks. They need to be thinking about the future of the interior, as well as right tackle. Even if they use No. 18 overall on one of the top-tier tackles, they will still be hunting the depth on the interior, particularly center, through the middle rounds. They could go to bed Friday night with what they envision as the right tackle and center of the next four years.
(Top photos of Omar Khan, Andrew Berry and Eric DeCosta: Charles LeClaire, Kirby Lee, Tommy Gilligan / USA Today)
