We have hit the final week of the 2023-24 regular season! By Sunday night, we’ll know final statistics, team records, Play-In Tournament matchups and at least two of the playoff series showdowns in each conference. It seems like a good time to answer one question for each team.
For the teams with postseason hopes, what would make this season a success? For the teams that fell short of the Play-In Tournament, was this season a success in some way? Are there any silver linings? We’ll answer these questions while flawlessly ranking all 30 teams without a single comment to the contrary.
Reminder: The Power Rankings don’t just rank the 30 teams. We divide these teams into tiers, which teams can move in and out of. We currently have the tiers broken into six categories:
- Eliminated – They’ve been eliminated from the Play-In race.
- Are they just filling out the Play-In criteria? — They have to get to 10 teams somehow!
- Play-In Tournament teams or better — They should be in the mix unless something disastrous happens.
- Playoff teams — Probably don’t have to worry about dropping down to the Play-In Tournament.
- On the brink of contention — A piece away from us believing they can win the title.
- Contenders — They are contending for the championship, barring a massive injury.
As always, I am sure we will all agree on the placement of all 30 teams, especially your favorite team.
Here’s how the Power Rankings work:
- It’s up to my discretion how the rankings shake out. For some teams, they’ll be hit in the short term. Others will be given the benefit for the long term. Yes, it is entirely subjective.
- If I have a team ahead of another team, there’s no reason to ask why they’re ranked above the team you like. The answer is pretty simple: I think that team is set up better for success.
- Yes, I watch the games. And yes, I watch your favorite team.
- This is supposed to be fun, so let’s have fun.
With all that said, let’s dive into Week 25 of The Athletic’s NBA Power Rankings. Stats and records are through Monday’s action.
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Tier 1 – The Contenders
What would make this season a success? At minimum, it has to be reaching the NBA Finals. The Celtics have dominated the league pretty much all season long. Their offense is the best ever. Their defense ranks second in the league. They’ve answered pretty much every question about their play and even brought in some good depth with Xavier Tillman and Jaden Springer to round out any potential roster holes. If the Celtics face anybody other than the defending champion Nuggets, I think you have to set the standard for this season’s success as winning a title.
Offensive Rating
122.4 (1st)
Defensive Rating
110.4 (2nd)
Eastern
Tier 1 – The Contenders
What would make this season a success? A second-round appearance feels like the right answer here. When they gave up that bounty to acquire Rudy Gobert two years ago, I said the Wolves getting 50-plus wins and a second-round appearance in multiple years would mark the most successful stretch in franchise history, because it would. The Wolves are more than good enough on defense to get out of the first round. They have the star power and rotation depth to succeed. Karl-Anthony Towns is coming back, so we’ll see how much that moves an offense that has survived without him. The Wolves simply can’t be happy to just make the playoffs anymore. The standard for success elevates this postseason.
Offensive Rating
114.5 (17th tied)
Defensive Rating
107.7 (1st)
Western
Tier 1 – The Contenders
What would make this season a success? Another championship. Unless there is a major injury to the starting five, I don’t think just getting back to the NBA Finals is enough. I think they have to win it. That’s the standard they’ve set for themselves. In reality, getting to the Finals and losing to someone like the Celtics isn’t shameful in the slightest. But the Nuggets are now so good and seemingly teflon that repeating as champions should be the goal, barring injury. They’re simply too elite. It’s the gift and curse of what they’ve done the last two seasons.
Offensive Rating
117.6 (6th tied)
Defensive Rating
112.3 (9th)
Western
Tier 1 – The Contenders
What would make this season a success? Much like the Wolves, it’s likely a second-round appearance for the Thunder. OKC is a little different from Minnesota, in that this is its first playoff appearance with this group, so they’re still unreasonably young relative to their team success. We have to remember this team didn’t even make the playoffs last year, but now it’s in contention for the No. 1 seed in the West. That’s a massive leap to make, but I still think this team is so talented and has such a dynamic star that we see the Thunder win a first-round series in order for this season to be deemed a success. They’ve dramatically changed expectations for themselves in real time.
Offensive Rating
118.3 (4th)
Defensive Rating
112.1 (6th tied)
Western
Tier 1 – The Contenders
Tier 2 – Brink of Contention
What would make this season a success? I think it’s already a success. I’m not even certain they need to win a first-round series because their opponent will likely be this loaded Clippers team. It’s worth mentioning the Mavs missed the playoffs last season. I keep flip-flopping about whether they need to advance, but I think they’ve had a great first full season of Kyrie Irving paired with Luka Dončić. And the West is so loaded. However, there is going to be a mandate by fans and pundits that Dončić, at some point, makes a deep playoff run every season, if that doesn’t happen this postseason. So, this is probably the last year to be this measured about Dallas.
Offensive Rating
117.6 (6th tied)
Defensive Rating
115.1 (18th)
Western
Tier 2 – Brink of Contention
What would make this season a success? Western Conference finals if Denver doesn’t win the No. 1 seed. As the Clippers navigate this jam-packed Western Conference playoff situation, matchups will be what determines how much they get clowned for “coming up short.” If they draw Dallas in the first round and either Minnesota or OKC in the second round, the expectation will and should be to reach the conference finals. If the Clippers draw Denver in the second round, then the expectation is to put up a great fight if they can’t bring Denver down. The Clippers need to be healthy for any deep run to be possible, but this is probably the best we’ve seen them since before the pandemic.
Offensive Rating
118.6 (3rd)
Defensive Rating
114.9 (17th)
Western
Tier 2 – Brink of Contention
What would make this season a success? Prior to the season, it was making the conference finals. Now? I have no idea how to get a handle on what is success for the Suns. It’s still probably needing to get to the conference finals, but I know it can’t be anything below a second-round series, even if they face Denver in the first round. The Suns created their big three in order to eliminate doubt, but that hasn’t happened. There are plenty of circumstances that explain their current lot in the West, but context is rarely something people love screaming in favor of when dissecting a team.
Offensive Rating
117.0 (8th tied)
Defensive Rating
114.0 (13th)
Western
Tier 2 – Brink of Contention
Tier 3 – Playoff Teams
What would make this season a success? I’m not sure if the Pelicans just showing up to the playoffs and losing in the first round can lead to us viewing this season as a success. This is the problem with trying to properly judge these good-but-not-quite-great teams in the West. The Pelicans need a healthy Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson in order to make a really good run. They currently have that with Zion but not Ingram. I’d like to see them win a round, if healthy. That should mark a successful season for New Orleans.
Offensive Rating
116.5 (12th)
Defensive Rating
111.8 (5th)
Western
Tier 3 – Playoff Teams
What would make this season a success? The roller coaster that is the Lakers continues to throw expectations all over the place. Should a team ranked ninth in the conference even have high expectations? We go through the same question with the Warriors because of their stars and résumés. The Lakers got it together last season to reach the conference finals. I think just making it through this Play-In Tournament should be a success, but more realistically, it won’t be considered one unless the Lakers win a playoff round – that is assuming they don’t face Denver in the opening series.
Offensive Rating
115.2 (15th)
Defensive Rating
114.7 (16th)
Western
Tier 3 – Playoff Teams
What would make this season a success? A second-round appearance in the playoffs. Even with Julius Randle being done for the season, I think the Knicks can and should make the second round … that is assuming OG Anunoby can be available for them in the postseason. His elbow injury continues giving plenty of cause for concern. This Knicks team has such a high IQ and plays so hard that I just believe in them beating these other-middle-of-the-pack Eastern Conference opponents. If OG can’t be available, then just putting up a good fight in the first round should be a success. Anything above that is gravy.
Offensive Rating
117.0 (8th tied)
Defensive Rating
112.1 (6th tied)
Eastern
Tier 3 – Playoff Teams
What would make this season a success? It’s crazy to even try to get a handle on what this team could be in the postseason. Doc Rivers had done a terrible job of getting this team to the level it needed to maintain. He has blamed everybody but himself and tried to demolish expectations as soon as he took the job mid-season. If he were running a failing restaurant, he’d blame the valet stand and the busboys before he pointed the finger at himself. This team looks so lost right now. And yet, it has so much top talent that making the conference finals wouldn’t be insane. I also wouldn’t be shocked if the Bucks were out in the first round. I’ll say they still need to make the conference finals for this season to be a success, since they don’t have to run into the Celtics in the first two rounds.
Offensive Rating
118.0 (5th)
Defensive Rating
115.2 (19th)
Eastern
Tier 3 – Playoff Teams
Tier 4 – Play-In Tournament Teams Or Better
What would make this season a success? Considering the injuries to Joel Embiid this season and the way they tried to stay afloat, I think just getting into the first round still makes the 76ers a success. It’s just not close to what they wanted to accomplish prior to Embiid’s knee needing an operation. If they manage to get a first-round series win, then their run would be a glowing success because of the resilience it would take. It just sucks that the Sixers once again are wondering “What if?” when it comes to their star being healthy enough for a deep playoff run, especially with the level he was playing at before the injury.
Offensive Rating
116.2 (13th tied)
Defensive Rating
113.6 (11th tied)
Eastern
Tier 4 – Play-In Tournament Teams Or Better
What would make this season a success? I’m not sure the Kings even need to make the second round in order to make this season a success, as long as they put up a great fight in the first round. Sacramento has proven that lighting the beam and last year’s run were not flukes. The Kings have established a good baseline of culture. They decided to not change much from last season and proved this team to be a legitimate threat every night. It’s good they’ve handled expectations of continuing that winning. Now, they see what happens in the postseason before tweaking the roster accordingly this summer. But if the Kings fail to make the playoffs and lose out in the Play-In, that will be a disappointment.
Offensive Rating
116.2 (13th tied)
Defensive Rating
114.6 (14th tied)
Western
Tier 4 – Play-In Tournament Teams Or Better
What would make this season a success? The Warriors probably need to find a way to get to the second round, and that’s probably not possible if the Nuggets get the No. 1 seed. I can talk myself into Golden State getting the No. 8 seed through the Play-In Tournament and upsetting the Wolves or Thunder. The Warriors have been really good on the road, and that matters in the postseason. They’re also pretty healthy, and their top two lineups are really good. But the Warriors are still quite flawed and need to play nearly perfect basketball in order to make this season anything but a failure.
Offensive Rating
116.8 (10th tied)
Defensive Rating
114.6 (14th tied)
Western
Tier 4 – Play-In Tournament Teams Or Better
What would make this season a success? It already is. I think the Magic could get hammered in the first round, but we’d still have to consider this a wildly successful season for them. They showed the last two-thirds of last season weren’t a fluke. This team is a fantastic defensive unit despite its youth. And Paolo Banchero is already an All-Star with superstar potential. The Magic know they need to add veteran perimeter help, but this team is on its way. I think Orlando will have a good showing in the playoffs, even if it’s a first-round exit. All possible stock for the future of this franchise should be unavailable.
Offensive Rating
113.1 (22nd)
Defensive Rating
110.6 (3rd)
Eastern
Tier 4 – Play-In Tournament Teams Or Better
What would make this season a success? It’s reasonable to move the expectation for a successful season from making the playoffs to a first-round series win. That is reasonable, of course, if Tyrese Haliburton is healthy enough to be close to the player we saw in the first half of the season. I’m not sure he is because he’s just been so far away from what was maybe an unreasonable standard to set for himself. This Pacers team is still very good and dangerous, but not without him being that force at the point. If they keep their top-six positioning, then this will be a successful season. Otherwise, the Pacers need to get through the Play-In and can’t come up short there.
Offensive Rating
120.0 (2nd)
Defensive Rating
117.6 (24th)
Eastern
Tier 4 – Play-In Tournament Teams Or Better
What would make this season a success? The Heat have to get to at least the second round of the playoffs. They’ve chosen to focus more on health for the postseason than outright trying to secure the highest possible playoff seed. Jimmy Butler has opted for finding that gear in the postseason, and based on last year, it’s somewhat understandable. But you can’t slow play the regular season and then not deliver. They might still end up with the No. 6 seed. But if the Heat face Boston in the first round and get bounced, getting through the Play-In Tournament will not suffice as a successful season.
Offensive Rating
113.3 (21st)
Defensive Rating
111.7 (4th)
Eastern
Tier 4 – Play-In Tournament Teams Or Better
What would make this season a success? They have to get healthy and get to the second round. This team is trying to grab the No. 3 seed and not be down to fourth or maybe even fifth in the East. The Cavs were recently competing for the No. 2 seed, but injuries have just betrayed them all season long. If they can get healthy, the team can’t bow out so easily like we saw against the Knicks last postseason. If the Cavs can’t be healthy for the playoffs, then this season will just be a disappointment considering how great their peak looked.
Offensive Rating
114.6 (16th)
Defensive Rating
112.1 (6th tied)
Eastern
Tier 4 – Play-In Tournament Teams Or Better
Tier 5 – Are they just filling out the Play-In criteria
What would make this season a success? Grabbing the No. 8 seed would certainly make this season a success. I went into this season hoping the Bulls would blow it all up and start trying to acquire some assets to rebuild. Instead, they handled the Zach LaVine injury situation by plugging Coby White into the lineup, and the latter took off. The Bulls had plenty of times they could have quit but instead remained very competitive plenty of nights. Even if they don’t clinch the No. 8 seed, just beating Atlanta to get a chance at it would make this season pretty successful. I still think they need to blow it up, though.
Offensive Rating
113.6 (19th)
Defensive Rating
115.5 (20th tied)
Eastern
Tier 5 – Are they just filling out the Play-In criteria
What would make this season a success? Assuming Trae Young is back and fully healthy for the end of the season and/or the Play-In matchup with Chicago, the answer is the Hawks getting through the Play-In Tournament for the No. 8 seed. Maybe the expectation even grows to stealing a game from Boston in the first round. If they don’t get Young back and fully healthy for the duration, then maybe just reaching the second Play-In game suffices? It’s hard to feel rosy about a team that grossly underperformed, even during healthy times.
Offensive Rating
116.8 (10th tied)
Defensive Rating
118.4 (27th)
Eastern
Tier 5 – Are they just filling out the Play-In criteria
Tier 6 – Eliminated
Was this season a success in some way? It looked pretty bleak for a bit, but the Rockets’ season ended up being a rousing success. Even though the team fell short of the Play-In Tournament, and maybe won’t even finish .500 season or better, Houston made incredible strides compared to last season. Head coach Ime Udoka was the perfect hire. Alperen Şengün is a legitimate star in this league. Jalen Green had a phenomenal second half of the season. Amen Thompson had great stretches, and the veterans added (Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, Jeff Green) provided the production and leadership needed to grow as a team.
Offensive Rating
113.5 (20th)
Defensive Rating
112.9 (10th)
Western
Tier 6 – Eliminated
Was this season a success in some way? No, this was a bad season all-around for the Nets. Mikal Bridges was good, and we all enjoyed Cam Thomas scoring the ball. But the Nets did not show up defensively like their personnel suggested. And offensively, they were just an inconsistent mess. It cost Jacque Vaugn his coaching job. On top of everything else, the Nets don’t have their first-round pick this June, and Ben Simmons had back surgery after a mostly ineffective season. The Nets need to find a way to build something that attracts stars once again.
Offensive Rating
112.7 (23rd)
Defensive Rating
115.5 (20th tied)
Eastern
Tier 6 – Eliminated
Was this season a success in some way? There were a few minor successes for the season, like GG Jackson and Vince Williams Jr. becoming very young but capable contributors for this team. And both players look like they might be able to do this for when the Grizzlies are good and dangerous next season. However, this season was always going to be tough for them because Ja Morant was suspended for the first 25 games. Once he was out for the season after playing in just nine games, we knew the Grizzlies’ season would be a disaster because of how poorly they started the season without him. Thankfully, they can chalk it up as a flukey bad year and get back to business in October.
Offensive Rating
106.9 (30th)
Defensive Rating
113.6 (11th tied)
Western
Tier 6 – Eliminated
Was this season a success in some way? It was 100 percent a success. Coach Gregg Popovich seemed to just roll the ball out there and have the young guys figure it out on the fly. It resulted in a lot of trial and error for them, but the Spurs closed the season strong as they became very dangerous with Victor Wembanyama on the floor. They needed to see if he was an All-Star and franchise guy. He’s all of that and a lot more as a player of his caliber. Then, they needed to figure out if some of the young guys fit around him. They do, so the future is beyond bright for a team that struggled to get to around 20 wins.
Offensive Rating
109.4 (26th)
Defensive Rating
116.2 (22nd)
Western
Tier 6 – Eliminated
Was this season a success in some way? I actually think it was better than most people might think. This team was surprisingly competitive for stretches of the season. Early on, when they still had several veterans in the rotation, the Blazers played pretty solid defense. We also saw some good things early from Shaedon Sharpe and promising production all season from Anfernee Simons. But ultimately, most people will focus on rookie Scoot Henderson not looking like the player that was advertised. Until that happens, it’s easy to question the direction of a newly rebuilding franchise.
Offensive Rating
108.1 (29th)
Defensive Rating
116.7 (23rd)
Western
Tier 6 – Eliminated
Was this season a success in some way? It could be considered a success in the sense that this should hopefully be the last season of just sheer ineptitude as an organization. There is new ownership and new management with a new coach on the way for next season and hopefully beyond. We also saw Brandon Miller look incredible as a rookie while showing he might have the potential to be an actual star at the NBA level. Some other players also had flashes, but the Hornets haven’t been relevant for good reasons in some time, so they need a complete 180 as an organization. Hopefully that begins this summer.
Offensive Rating
108.5 (28th)
Defensive Rating
119.1 (29th)
Eastern
Tier 6 – Eliminated
Was this season a success in some way? Scottie Barnes quickly turned into an All-Star in this league, as they were working on handing over the reins to him as the primary guy. The Raptors then got a decent return for Pascal Siakam in a trade, and what I think is a great return in the OG Anunoby trade. Immanuel Quickley can absolutely be their point guard of the future, and I like a lot of what we saw from RJ Barrett when they brought him in. If the Raptors’ recent tanking allows them to keep their pick for them to add a solid rotation guy – maybe even a starter – to the mix, then I think you can call this season a moral success.
Offensive Rating
111.9 (24th)
Defensive Rating
117.8 (25th)
Eastern
Tier 6 – Eliminated
Was this season a success in some way? If we want to get the positives out of the way, I liked what I saw from Kyle Kuzma, Tyus Jones and rookie Bilal Coulibaly. Deni Avdija had a good individual season, and Corey Kispert has had some nice moments. However, this might be the least serious team we’ve seen in quite some time, and it wasn’t just due to Jordan Poole’s apathy. There were so many times in which the Wizards just looked bafflingly incompetent out there. They were supposed to be bad as they started rebuilding, but this season was another level of that.
Offensive Rating
109.9 (25th)
Defensive Rating
118.7 (28th)
Eastern
Tier 6 – Eliminated
Was this season a success in some way? Even though it looks like the Jazz are going to wind up with the worst defensive rating in NBA history, I do think there are parts of this season that can be viewed as a success. We know Lauri Markannen wasn’t a fluke last season. We also know they have a lot of offensive talent with their veterans. And rookie Keyonte George is a great find for them as a lead guard of the present and future. Although I also like what we’ve seen from guys like Taylor Hendricks and Brice Sensabaugh, the Jazz have to find a way to be even marginally competitive on defense.
Offensive Rating
114.5 (17th tied)
Defensive Rating
119.6 (30th)
Western
Tier 6 – Eliminated
Was this season a success in some way? It was mostly an outright disaster. Detroit was not tanking this year. While I don’t think the team had delusions of grandeur nor playoff hopes either, the Pistons definitely weren’t looking to be bad to procure NBA Draft Lottery riches – not with this draft class. Monty Williams was pretty bad as the coach too. But if we want to take some positives, Cade Cunningham was about as healthy as we’ve seen, Jalen Duren looks like a legitimate starting big man, and Jaden Ivey had some good runs when Williams allowed him to do so. Also, Ausar Thompson can really play, the Pistons acquired Quentin Grimes at the trade deadline, and they got rid of some dead weight on the roster. It somehow could be worse.
Offensive Rating
109.3 (27th)
Defensive Rating
118.1 (26th)
Eastern
Tier 6 – Eliminated
(Top photo: Justin Ford / Getty Images)
