There are plenty of storylines for the Rangers–Capitals playoff series. Rangers defenseman Ryan Lindgren will go head-to-head with his older brother Charlie, who helped carry Washington to the playoffs with stellar play in net. New York coach Peter Laviolette will go against his former team, and Tom Wilson will face the team that in 2021 released a statement calling for him to be suspended indefinitely.
On the ice, New York had a much better regular season, winning the Presidents’ Trophy and finishing with a franchise-record 55 wins. The Alex Ovechkin-led Capitals have a minus-37 goal differential but managed to win their last three games — two against playoff teams — to secure a postseason berth as the second wild card in the East.
The Athletic’s Peter Baugh and Rob Rossi broke down the matchup, with Baugh focusing on the Rangers and Rossi on the Capitals.
What’s each team’s path to victory?
Baugh: The Rangers are the better team. Artemi Panarin has had the best season of anyone playing in the series, and New York has more depth at forward and defense. Dylan Strome led the Capitals with 67 points this season. He would have been sixth on the Rangers. Washington has five skaters with positive Net ratings, according to Dom Luszczyszyn’s model. New York has nine, five of whom are rated higher than Washington’s top player (Strome).
The Capitals deserve a ton of credit for clawing their way into the playoffs, but if the Rangers simply play the way they have all season, they should be fine. A series loss would be a choke on their part more than anything done by the Capitals.
Rossi: Any perception the Capitals are inferior is based upon regular-season results. Those results — and any statistical evaluation based on those results — are meaningless in a short series.
The Capitals have been playing high-stakes games for months, having clawed their way into playoff contention before finally winning four of their final five regular-season games. They allowed only eight goals in those games. They’re playing well.
Much will be made about the Capitals’ goal differential — the worst for a playoff team since 1991. Perhaps too little is being made about the Capitals’ two losses in one-goal games. No team had fewer this season.
Beware the hot underdog that is comfortable in low-scoring games. The Capitals are that team this postseason.
What’s one thing that could be problematic for each team?
Baugh: Charlie Lindgren is the main reason the Capitals made the playoffs. He saved 18.58 more goals than expected over the course of the season, according to Evolving-Hockey, and had a .949 save percentage over Washington’s final five games. Hot goalies can derail playoff hopes, and Lindgren is playing great. If he continues to roll, New York will perhaps have to get in his eyes and score in dirty areas to break through.
Rossi: Usually, the Capitals’ power play worries opposing coaches. That will probably be true for Laviolette, who knows first-hand how one of the great weapons in league history — Alex Ovechkin’s one-time on the power play — can transform games.
The script has flipped, as the Rangers have one of the most potent power plays in the NHL. The second unit would be the top one for many teams.
The Capitals can compete 5-on-5, as the Rangers don’t pass the eye test when things are even. But if it becomes a power-play series, it will require Ovechkin to match the Rangers’ bounty of man-advantage aces. He’s still great on the power play, but he’s one against many in this series.
Who’s the biggest x-factor on each team?
Baugh: I’m going to cheat and say a whole line. The Rangers’ trio of Panarin, Vincent Trocheck and Alexis Lafrenière has been a force all season. Panarin put together one of the best seasons in the league, scoring 49 goals and logging 120 points, and Trocheck led the team’s forwards in ice time, all while putting up a career-high 77 points. Lafrenière has flourished under Laviolette. The three have chemistry together, and when they get going, they’re hard to stop. The Capitals will have their hands full with them.
Rossi: Rangers captain Jacob Trouba has shaped several previous playoff series with his penchant for seismic hits. He’ll surely try to do that against the Capitals.
He’ll have his work cut out. He probably isn’t the most physically intimidating presence in the series.
That would be Wilson, who can irritate and do his share of incapacitating. Also, Wilson’s style as a player could prove troublesome. He wants to muck it up. If he’s afforded that opportunity, the Rangers are courting danger.
The Capitals are big and play big. It’s to their advantage if the series gets overly physical.
What’s the toughest decision each coach will have to make?
Baugh: Assuming Filip Chytil isn’t ready for Game 1, the big question for Laviolette is whether Jonny Brodzinski or Matt Rempe slots in as the 12th forward. The 21-year-old Rempe is a fan favorite in New York because of his physicality and 6-foot-8 frame, and Laviolette said recently he believes the rookie is ready for playoff hockey.
But the coach has trusted Brodzinski more throughout the season. Rempe averaged 5:38 of ice time in 17 games, while Brodzinski averaged 11:08 in a career-high 57 games. The decision could come down to whether Laviolette feels the series calls for Rempe’s physicality. He coached the Capitals from 2020-23, so he’d know as well as anyone.
Rossi: Spencer Carbury has done a wonderful job in his first season with the Capitals. He’s a deserving candidate for the Jack Adams Award as the NHL’s top coach. But this is his first crack at the Stanley Cup crucible as a bench boss, and every decision gets magnified in a short series.
Returning to the previous point about a physical series favoring the Capitals, the challenge for Carbury will be striking the right balance. The Capitals need to assert themselves while playing within control.
Take T.J. Oshie, who plays with an edge. When he crosses the line, he’s not as effective at scoring as the Capitals will need him to be. The same goes for Wilson and even Ovechkin.
The Capitals’ best players will need to walk a tightrope mentally. That’s not easy to do in a heated rivalry.
What storyline excites you most?
Baugh: I’m a sucker for family stories, so I’ll go with the Lindgren showdown. As we’ve established, Charlie has been instrumental in the Capitals getting to this point, and Ryan is a heart-and-soul player for New York. Seeing them play each other will be special, though I’m sure their parents will be conflicted.
Rossi: Ovechkin is back in the playoffs. There is no need to overthink this one. Only Wayne Gretzky has scored more goals. Ovechkin is closer to the end than the beginning, so any opportunity to see him on the biggest stage — and especially under the bright lights that accompany any series involving the Rangers — is one to treasure.
(Photo: Seth Wenig / AP Photo)
