Pitching is very difficult at this time of year. With hitters now, my advice is generally, “Just don’t do something. Stand there!” But pitching is different. We are in the twilight zone of uncertainty now even in terms of something being bettable given the small sample sizes — generally, I will stipulate. But sometimes the weight of the sample makes up for the small sample size.
So this week, let’s look at some pitchers who, when you filter their Statcast data, have very weighty samples. Whether it’s predictive, who knows. But we can say without any qualification that they have been great to date. And we’ll also look at pitchers who have been much better than their ERA in the stats that they can generally control — mainly expected weighted on-base average (an xERA proxy).
I filter the big population multiple times to get the true essence of the best pitching to date. This is descriptive for sure, but I always say not to discount the perfectly descriptive because ERA is such a volatile and often random stat. I start with PAs, which was 40+. Then I sort by my WIZSOOZ (whiffs in zone plus swings out of zone) — average of about 44% and I look for 50%+. Then I want a plus K% (over 25%). Next, an expected xwOBA of .275 or less (though I relented on the one .276 pitcher), with the average for the population being .327. And because I believe in being able to win up in the zone with a fastball, I want plus RPMs (2300+ — average is 2249). That’s a lot of hoops to jump through. Who made the cut? Not many!
In no particular order:
Buttó is 16% rostered on Yahoo. It’s a small sample, but it’s a heavy one. He has 34.1% Ks. His xERA is 2.75. He’s yet to give up a single barrel — just incredible. He’s getting 35.7% whiffs on his fastball — insane. And his changeup is 45.5% whiffs. This will not continue but is he directionally likely to be a better-than-average mixed league starter given these skills? Yes. I get he came out of nowhere, but this happens all the time with pitchers. It’s not just this year — last season, in his final five starts: 3.29 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. He was also dominant in spring training. Even if there’s a 30% chance this is mostly real, you have to claim him.
The ship has sailed for Crochet but maybe the manager in your league is down on him given he gave up a lot of runs in his most recent start (but had 10 Ks). The way to do this is to say you’re looking for pitching and ask him if he is interested in any trades and see if he offers up Crochet. If he does, say, “He just got rocked, I don’t know, he’s a converted reliever…” Try to get him for a song.
None of the other guys are gettable. But we want to put the gettable guys in a bucket with the non-gettable guys because we’re looking for value where others don’t see it, or don’t see it as clearly.
Now let’s look less critically at just the pitchers who have been much better than their ERA, for whatever reason.
Even though Crochet is at just a 3.57 ERA, he’s third in xwOBA at .221 — behind Tarik Skubal (.200) and Ronel Blanco (.209). Greene is similar — 4.86 ERA, .253 xwOBA. But they are not available so the advice here is to hold ‘em if you got ‘em.
By the way, Blanco’s .209 xwOBA lends credence to the argument that his 0.86 ERA isn’t a total fluke, or even mainly a fluke. He has only 21.1% Ks though. And his WIZSOOZ are subpar. He’s 86% rostered. I personally prefer Buttó even though the Astros are a better team. But I would be holding Blanco 100%.
Ryan Pepiot is 86% rostered, but he’s coming off a bad outing. So he may have been dropped. He is a good pitcher and similar to Crochet. He should be a trade target. A lot of the time, managers who pick up a guy like Pepiot don’t have a firm enough belief in him to withstand even one bad outing.
Gavin Stone is 41% rostered and is a top 50 pitcher right now in his foundational stats. His ERA ranks 130th of 169. He’s likely to stick in the rotation and is coming off his best start. His roster percentage has barely moved (+1%).
George Kirby is also not nearly as bad as his 8.10 ERA though not as good as we hoped when we drafted him. He’s basically been Stone. Ditto for Luis Castillo and Pablo López. Max Fried has not been good but also has not earned his ghastly ERA.
Michael Wacha is 76th in ERA among the qualifiers in PAs and 36th in xwOBA. But he’s 61% rostered, though his roster rate is declining after a rough outing against the Mets.
I wish there were more actionable pitchers popping here but there aren’t. We can’t force it. There is guidance on who to believe in among surprising pitchers and who to still have faith in despite bad ERAs. The big takeaway here for the waiver wire is to get Buttó and Stone.
Quickly, here are bad pitchers who we drafted aggressively but who are just pitching horribly no matter how you slice it and, thus, who should keep you up at night:
I have nothing positive to say about any of them. Would you take two negative statements?
