This is the digital version of Scoop City. If you want it earlier, start every morning with Scoop City delivered to your inbox. Sign up here.
Find yourself a mentor who pushes you almost* as hard as Cooper Kupp pushes Puka Nacua. “That first week I came back, I think I threw up every day of the week,” said Nacua. (*Almost is key.)
Today’s Scoop City covers your NFL update:
- 📃 DeVonta Smith’s big contract
- 🔬 Poor draft strategies
- ⏳ Are old coaches a problem?
- 🔦 Under-the-radar QB prospects
Eagles give DeVonta Smith $75M deal
Yesterday, Eagles’ WR DeVonta Smith agreed to a three-year, $75M extension with $51M guaranteed that will keep the former 2021 No. 10 pick in Philadelphia through 2028. Smith, 25, is one of the Eagles’ nine regular offensive starters under contract beyond the 2025 season.
Despite pre-draft concerns about his weight (175-pounds), Smith has missed just one regular season game in his three year NFL career, posting over 100 targets and 900+ yards each season.
The average annual value for this deal puts Smith fourth among WRs, per Over the Cap, but comes at a convenient time: The Vikings’ Justin Jefferson is expected to move the WR market with an extension projected at over $30 million per year.
NFL Draft: Teams should expect to be wrong on “their guy”
In 2017, the Bears dealt the No. 3 pick, two thirds and a fourth to the 49ers to move up one spot in the draft. At No. 2, they chose their guy, Mitch Trubisky. It wasn’t a reach at the time, as scouts ranked Trubisky the No. 1 QB in his class. That same year, the Chiefs sent two first-round picks and a third for the Bills’ No. 10 pick, drafting Patrick Mahomes.
Regardless of how their careers would unfold, trade value charts had the teams who traded back — the 49ers and Bills — winning both deals by receiving upwards of 150 cents on the dollar. Why?
As Alec Lewis explains in an enlightening story on the NFL’s approach to the draft, research has shown that teams should accumulate picks by trading back and into the future more often: “The more darts you have, the better your chance of eventually hitting the bull’s-eye.”
In 2005, a research paper on overconfidence in the NFL revealed analysis on decision-making during the draft. Key themes:
- Evaluating prospects is difficult. Our stats back it up: Across the past 13 years, first-round WRs were either a bust or a reach 63 percent of the time. The hit rate for top-10 QBs was not much better, with teams drafting stars at just a 26 percent rate.
- Teams aren’t as smart as they think. The researchers found that “teams massively overestimate their abilities to delineate between stars and flops, and because of that they heavily overvalue the ‘right to choose’ in the draft.”
- Given the uncertainty, the more picks, the better. The highly coveted QB position demonstrates the downside of trading up to get “your guy,” unless he turns out to be Mahomes. Across the past 13 NFL drafts, nearly 70 percent of years saw the best QB drafted after the first QB was taken. For example, Lamar Jackson went No. 32 in 2018 as the fifth QB taken. Trade back.
Nearly 20 years after the paper was published, teams continue to avoid recommendations by trading up and mortgaging future picks. The full article explores the incentives at play, with decision-makers sharing the reasoning behind this irrationality.
Your Questions, Our Answers: Does age impact coaching effectiveness?
“Two of the better head coaches in NFL history were let go after the season ended (Bill Belichick & Pete Carroll). They were also the two oldest coaches in the NFL. What impact (if any) do age gaps have on the relationships between coaches and this new generation of young players?” – Don W.
I passed this along to former NFL GM Randy Mueller:
“For coaching, it shouldn’t matter. Good players at this level want to be coached, and the two guys mentioned have totally different styles and communicative ways to reach players — both were effective.
“But from a planning point of view, age does make it harder to have a longer-range plan and make changes that may take time to see the results of. Player development takes time and a vision that goes out beyond a year or two.
“Both Bill and Pete had final say on all personnel issues, and that may have had a bigger effect on their removal than any disconnect with younger players. Team-building requires a different mindset these days than coaching.”
Meet the Prospects: Under-the-radar QBs
There are many examples of productive college players falling in the draft. In 2023, WR Tank Dell had just led all college football prospects in receiving yards (1,398) and TDs (17).
Despite the elite production, Dell’s size (5-8, 165-pounds) saw him drafted No. 69, two rounds after WR Quentin Johnston (6-3, 208-pounds). After one NFL season, Dell was WR10 in ESPN’s rankings. Johnston was WR133.
Today, Jayna Bardahl, writer of our great college football newsletter Until Saturday, shares two QBs who produced on the stat sheet but could fall in the draft.
1. Notre Dame QB Sam Hartman
Jayna: The 6-1, 211-pound prospect transferred to Notre Dame for his final college season, where he had a 24-8 TD-INT ratio. Although his career with the Irish fell a bit short of expectations, he still ranks fourth in FBS history in career TD passes thrown (134).
Jacob: Expectation here is a No. 2 or No. 3 QB in the NFL, potentially as a seventh-round Packers pick.
2. Mayland QB Taulia Tagovailoa
Jayna: The younger brother of Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa broke the Big Ten’s all-time passing yard record (11,256) and Maryland records in career completion percentage (67.1 percent) and career passing TDs (76), among others.
Jacob: Given the depth in this class, Brugler’s 18th-ranked QB has an undrafted grade. Still, I expect this mobile passer to find his way onto a roster by camp, despite his limited size (5-11, 200-pounds).
For my full summary of their draft prospects, keep an eye out for today’s edition of Until Saturday.
Around the NFL
WR Rashee Rice joined his teammates as a participant in the Chiefs’ offseason program via video conference. “As we’ve done in the past, we’ll just wait for the law enforcement part of it to take place and then we’ll go from there,” said HC Andy Reid, when asked about Rice’s legal troubles.
The Seahawks need long-term answers at LB, and Michigan’s Junior Colson is an intriguing option. Colson, Brugler’s No. 1 LB, played his freshman season under new Seahawks HC Mike Macdonald.
QB Daniel Jones believes he’s the best Week 1 QB for the Giants. Still, his status as the unquestioned starter remains in peril, writes Charlotte Carroll.
The Jets hold the No. 10 pick, where Zack Rosenblatt explores three of their dilemmas on draft day, including “a feeling around the league that the Jets are targeting [TE Brock Bowers] at No. 10.”
The Cowboys’ best-case scenario for this year’s draft? As Saad Yousuf writes, it includes “trading to the back of the first round, still grabbing a quality left tackle and adding a top-100 draft pick, and perhaps a late-round pick.”
Jacob’s Picks
📕 “Back to the beginning” for Mahomes and the Chiefs as they look for a third title in as many years. Nate Taylor shares the story on what Mahomes describes as the first day of elementary school. (The Athletic)
📺 Best and worst trade-ups in draft history. From the Eagles trading up and missing on HoF DT Warren Sapp to the Chiefs move for Mahomes, hindsight shows the significance — and danger — of these trades. (YouTube)
🎙 Do the Cardinals move back? And then trade up? Robert Mays and Nate Tice discuss the top five picks, examining team needs for the Chargers, Cardinals, Patriots, Commanders and Bears. Arizona holds the No. 4 pick, discussed in depth at the 18-minute mark: “Anything could happen.” (Podcast)
If you know a Cardinals fan, share this newsletter. Are you that rare fan? Sign up here.
Sign up for our other newsletters:
The Bounce 🏀 | The Windup ⚾ | Full Time ⚽ | Prime Tire 🏁 | Until Saturday 🏈
(Photo: Elsad/Getty Images)
