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New Eras: How will Caitlin Clark actually fit in?
For over a year, we’ve wondered about this moment. Caitlin Clark and her WNBA Draft class, filled with the names that have pushed women’s basketball into the national spotlight, are finally in the league.
Is this level of interest sustainable? Is this one of the most important moments in WNBA history? For now, what we know is this: Last night’s WNBA Draft was likely the most-watched edition in the event’s history.
Yes, Clark went No. 1 to Indiana, as we all expected, but I’m more curious about the on-court impact of this class. I went to Sabreena Merchant, who’s been all over this draft, for help:
You wrote a good piece on Clark’s future in the WNBA, especially initially. Should fans temper expectations for her out of the gate? Is that even possible?
Sabreena: Forget measured optimism! Fans should expect Clark to be one of the most productive rookies of all time. Only three players have ever averaged 20 points in their first year and only two since Sue Bird have tallied five assists per game. Clark, who averaged more than 28 points and eight assists per game in her collegiate career, has a chance to hit both marks. She’s surrounded by talented players who will optimize her skill set, and she’s met every challenge thus far.
Clark’s longtime foil, Angel Reese, went No. 7 to Chicago, but opinions differ on her. What’s her biggest hurdle?
Sabreena: Angel played out of position as a senior at LSU, and thus it’s challenging to determine how she’ll produce in the WNBA. She had to go up against bigger centers, which diminished her efficiency at the basket. However, that also made her speed an advantage, and now she’ll be matched up against quicker power forwards and have to play more often on the perimeter. That will be the biggest test for Reese: developing a jump shot.
Give us a prospect who’s not getting enough shine:
Sabreena: Nika Mühl, who went No. 14 overall to Seattle, had an outstanding NCAA Tournament run, defending Dyaisha Fair, JuJu Watkins and Clark in the span of four games, arguably winning her matchup each time. She was invited to the draft as one of the top 15 prospects, and it’s possible the UConn guard has all-rookie potential.
For what it’s worth, Reese and No. 3 pick/new Sky teammate Kamilla Cardoso could be the WNBA’s second most-interesting story next year. The Sky desperately needed rebounding help; now, “nobody’s going to get no rebounds on us,” Cardoso said last night.
This all comes back to Clark, though, and the star power she injects into the WNBA — which was already great, but lacking eyes — at a pivotal time for the league. Just look at how many people packed into an arena in Indianapolis to watch Clark get drafted on TV.
It’s a new era. The WNBA is officially planning to expand, by the way. How high can they go? I’m excited to watch. Full draft results here.
News to Know
Nets pick Fernandez
The Brooklyn Nets are set to hire Kings assistant Jordi Fernández as the franchise’s next head coach, league sources confirmed, after a lengthy search. The team fired coach Jacque Vaughn 54 games into this season, then finished 32-50. Fernandez, just 41, has been a key part of the Kings’ resurgence over the last two seasons under Mike Brown.
Eagles ink Smith
The Philadelphia Eagles exercised the fifth-year option on wideout DeVonta Smith yesterday, after which he also agreed to a three-year extension with $51 million guaranteed. Smith has been a reliable star, having compiled two straight 1,000-yard seasons. He has played in all but one regular-season game in his three-year career.
More news
Curiosities: Wait, they’ve known how to draft all along?
For NFL talent evaluators, judging a player prospect is akin to choosing a romantic partner. Sure, there is on-field attraction, but what’s the personality like? The character? Do they fit in your life/with your team?
Front offices agonize over this. They lose jobs over this. And yet, according to reliable data, a lot of that agony and evaluation time is wasted. So why does everyone continue to draft the same way?
Alec Lewis wrote an intriguing piece today on the open secret known to executives across the league — year after year, results continue to show that picking “your guy” is unreliable folly. A few things that struck me:
- The basis of this data is simple. It’s not about the quality of picks you have, but about the quantity, which goes against the old axiom all of our parents taught us. The more picks you have, the better chance you have to pick a difference maker, no matter the round.
- The “best” drafting teams utilize this and often trade back for more. Think of the Ravens’ current regime, which has made a habit of valuing hordes more than superstars. The Patriots were great at this in their heyday, too.
- This doesn’t always work out, though. Alec smartly cited former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman, who embraced the data-guided strategy during his tenure. Spielman made 37 draft-pick trades between 2011 and 2020. Results were mixed.
Incredibly, data shows the No. 1 overall pick is actually the least valuable pick in the first round. I can’t help but think about the Bears, who have utilized both sides of this strategy in the past two years.
Read the full story for more insights into the fallacy of draft strategies, which will fascinate you and make you want to ram your head into a wall. As a Saints fan, I’m contemplating the latter myself after reading it.
Watch This Game
NBA: Lakers at Pelicans
7:30 p.m. ET on TNT
Because of Play-In games, we’re going full NBA tonight. New Orleans has been a better team this year, but continues to crumple in these spotlight games, particularly against the Lakers. Plug into our live blog here.
NBA: Warriors at Kings
10 p.m. ET on TNT
A beautiful revenge matchup here. Sacramento saw its dazzling 2022-23 season end against the Warriors last year, and now has a chance to turn the tables with a single win. For Golden State, this might be the last postseason run with the Steph Curry/Draymond Green/Klay Thompson nucleus.
Pulse Picks
I thought this was so interesting: A large, national company — Diamond Baseball Holdings — is aggressively buying up minor-league baseball teams, which once belonged to a diverse swath of local owners in a busy baseball ecosystem. The sport is consolidating. Is that a good thing? The answer is murky.
Randy Mueller took a different approach to his NFL Draft board: He ranked the top 10 players by value, regardless of position. This is not a top 10 you’ll see many places.
NBA coaches have legacies too, as Sam Amick writes, while compiling a piece on postseason coaching tiers that made my eyebrows raise.
What’s it like inside the NASCAR hauler? Drivers compare it to being called to the principal’s office in school. Jordan Bianchi has a fun story on 180-mph detention.
Whoever finishes second for this year’s Hart Trophy will likely have a special place in NHL history, having produced one of the best offensive performances not to land the award. Ian Mendes, Sean McIndoe and Sean Gentille picked the 10 best offensive seasons to never win the Hart.
Most-clicked in the newsletter yesterday: A reflection on the Cutter Gauthier/Flyers saga. We love a dramatic lookback.
Most-read on the website yesterday: Our WNBA Draft live blog blew everything out of the water.
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(Photo: Brad Penner/ USA Today)
