MLB daily projections: Implied win percentage, pitching matchups and more from THE BAT X

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MLB daily projections: Implied win percentage, pitching matchups and more from THE BAT X

Welcome to our hub for MLB daily projections, powered by Derek Carty’s THE BAT X and Austin Mock’s model. Below, you’ll find a series of stats that should enhance your baseball-watching enjoyment, whether you pore over odds all day or just want some deeper info on your favorite team’s matchup — this is smart analysis that can serve all kinds of purposes.

In the first set of data, Derek Carty’s EV Analytics provides everything from value picks (note: on mobile, there is a color-coded column on the far right you may have to scroll to see) to Monday’s weather. There are playoff and World Series likelihoods, quantified as percent chances, for all MLB teams. The data has also produced betting angles and player prop insights.

Below that, every weekday you’ll find Austin Mock’s “Dinger of the Day” — someone whose odds to hit a home run today are significantly different than Austin’s model. Plus, for Beat the Streak enthusiasts, we highlight a player with the best chance to get a hit today.

All odds you see are from BetMGM.

Note: You may have to do a “hard reset” to refresh THE BAT X stats — hold down shift-command-R on Mac and ctrl-F5, shift-F5 or ctrl-shift-R on Windows/PC.

Austin Mock’s daily model outputs

K Prop of the Day

  • Tyler Glasnow under 9.5 -170
  • Model projection: 7.7
  • Overall: 3-4 -1.75 units, -20.3% ROI

Beat the Streak Pick

  • Current streak: 3
  • Rafael Devers (76.6%)
  • Overall: 3-2

Dinger of the Day

  • Note: This isn’t so much a prediction on who will hit a home run, it’s more about the model vs. the posted odds having a large value discrepancy. 
  • Colton Cowser: YES Home Run +700
  • Model projection: +545
  • Overall: 0-6, -6.00 units -100.0% ROI

(Top photo: Joe Robbins / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images; Chung Sung-Jun / Getty Images; Quinn Harris / Getty Images; design by Sean Reilly)